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Weather Prediction Accuracy

Below are three day Brandon, Manitoba forecasts for each day this year in addition to what the actual daytime high temperature ended up measuring. In brackets are the difference between predicted high and actual high. The intention of this feature is not to undermine Environment Canada. We respect how difficult it is to predict the weather from day-to-day, and are simply providing a means by which to understand and respect that difficulty.

DateDaytime high1 day prediction2 day prediction3 day prediction
April 278.96 (2.9)8 (0.9)5 (3.9)
April 266.82 (4.8)5 (1.8)3 (3.8)
April 266.82 (4.8)5 (1.8)3 (3.8)
April 254.33 (1.3)3 (1.3)3 (1.3)
April 241.21 (0.2)0 (1.2)2 (0.8)
April 241.21 (0.2)0 (1.2)2 (0.8)
April 234.52 (2.5)3 (1.5)5 (0.5)
April 234.52 (2.5)3 (1.5)5 (0.5)
April 223.84 (0.2)4 (0.2)4 (0.2)
April 223.84 (0.2)4 (0.2)4 (0.2)
April 2115.215 (0.2)13 (2.2)12 (3.2)
April 2115.215 (0.2)13 (2.2)12 (3.2)
April 2115.215 (0.2)13 (2.2)12 (3.2)
April 2010.710 (0.7)12 (1.3)11 (0.3)
April 1911.211 (0.2)12 (0.8)11 (0.2)
April 189.39 (0.3)11 (1.7)8 (1.3)
April 173.35 (1.7)8 (4.7)7 (3.7)
April 173.35 (1.7)8 (4.7)7 (3.7)
April 162.83 (0.2)7 (4.2)1 (1.8)
April 1515.212 (3.2)10 (5.2)10 (5.2)
April 1515.212 (3.2)10 (5.2)10 (5.2)
April 1515.212 (3.2)10 (5.2)10 (5.2)
April 1417.920 (2.1)18 (0.1)15 (2.9)
April 1417.920 (2.1)18 (0.1)15 (2.9)
April 1417.920 (2.1)18 (0.1)15 (2.9)
April 1316.716 (0.7)15 (1.7)13 (3.7)
April 1213.814 (0.2)11 (2.8)11 (2.8)
April 1213.814 (0.2)11 (2.8)11 (2.8)
April 1110.811 (0.2)9 (1.8)9 (1.8)
April 104.36 (1.7)5 (0.7)5 (0.7)
April 092.52 (0.5)5 (2.5)5 (2.5)
April 081714 (3.0)14 (3.0)15 (2.0)
April 081714 (3.0)14 (3.0)15 (2.0)
April 0715.617 (1.4)14 (1.6)16 (0.4)
April 0715.617 (1.4)14 (1.6)16 (0.4)
April 0715.617 (1.4)14 (1.6)16 (0.4)
April 0715.617 (1.4)14 (1.6)16 (0.4)
April 0715.617 (1.4)14 (1.6)16 (0.4)
April 0610.611 (0.4)10 (0.6)14 (3.4)
April 057.78 (0.3)9 (1.3)8 (0.3)
April 057.78 (0.3)9 (1.3)8 (0.3)
April 0410.76 (4.7)7 (3.7)9 (1.7)
April 0312.312 (0.3)13 (0.7)9 (3.3)
April 0211.810 (1.8)10 (1.8)8 (3.8)
April 015.98 (2.1)9 (3.1)9 (3.1)
April 015.98 (2.1)9 (3.1)9 (3.1)
March 315.45 (0.4)4 (1.4)8 (2.6)
March 308.810 (1.2)12 (3.2)11 (2.2)
March 308.810 (1.2)12 (3.2)11 (2.2)
March 308.810 (1.2)12 (3.2)11 (2.2)
March 297.511 (3.5)9 (1.5)8 (0.5)
March 280.25 (4.8)7 (6.8)7 (6.8)
March 275.45 (0.4)8 (2.6)6 (0.6)
March 266.46 (0.4)7 (0.6)8 (1.6)
March 253.94 (0.1)7 (3.1)6 (2.1)
March 234.2-3 (7.2)5 (0.8)9 (4.8)
March 21-9.5-6 (3.5)-6 (3.5)-1 (8.5)
March 195.3-4 (9.3)5 (0.3)-5 (10.3)
March 18-0.4-1 (0.6)-2 (1.6)-3 (2.6)
March 160.6-4 (4.6)4 (3.4)-2 (2.6)
March 160.6-4 (4.6)4 (3.4)-2 (2.6)
March 15-0.8-1 (0.2)-2 (1.2)-2 (1.2)
March 15-0.8-1 (0.2)-2 (1.2)-2 (1.2)
March 14-6-6 (0.0)-7 (1.0)-6 (0.0)
March 13-12.2-12 (0.2)-12 (0.2)-9 (3.2)
March 13-12.2-12 (0.2)-12 (0.2)-9 (3.2)
March 12-13.4-14 (0.6)-13 (0.4)-14 (0.6)
March 12-13.4-14 (0.6)-13 (0.4)-14 (0.6)
March 11-15.7-14 (1.7)-15 (0.7)-14 (1.7)
March 11-15.7-14 (1.7)-15 (0.7)-14 (1.7)
March 11-15.7-14 (1.7)-15 (0.7)-14 (1.7)
March 10-18.5-18 (0.5)-16 (2.5)-17 (1.5)
March 10-18.5-18 (0.5)-16 (2.5)-17 (1.5)
March 09-16.5-17 (0.5)-16 (0.5)-14 (2.5)
March 08-12.8-10 (2.8)-8 (4.8)-7 (5.8)
March 07-12.4-11 (1.4)-7 (5.4)-7 (5.4)
March 07-12.4-11 (1.4)-7 (5.4)-7 (5.4)
March 060.70 (0.7)-4 (4.7)1 (0.3)
March 060.70 (0.7)-4 (4.7)1 (0.3)
March 051.24 (2.8)2 (0.8)4 (2.8)
March 051.24 (2.8)2 (0.8)4 (2.8)
March 043-4 (7.0)5 (2.0)-3 (6.0)
March 043-4 (7.0)5 (2.0)-3 (6.0)
March 03-4-3 (1.0)-3 (1.0)-2 (2.0)
March 03-4-3 (1.0)-3 (1.0)-2 (2.0)
March 03-4-3 (1.0)-3 (1.0)-2 (2.0)
March 03-4-3 (1.0)-3 (1.0)-2 (2.0)
March 03-4-3 (1.0)-3 (1.0)-2 (2.0)
March 02-14.5-12 (2.5)-10 (4.5)-9 (5.5)
March 02-14.5-12 (2.5)-10 (4.5)-9 (5.5)
March 02-14.5-12 (2.5)-10 (4.5)-9 (5.5)
March 01-8.2-7 (1.2)-6 (2.2)-6 (2.2)
February 28-10-9 (1.0)-6 (4.0)-6 (4.0)
February 27-11.6-9 (2.6)-7 (4.6)-5 (6.6)
February 26-7.8-7 (0.8)-6 (1.8)-7 (0.8)
February 26-7.8-7 (0.8)-6 (1.8)-7 (0.8)
February 25-8.8-6 (2.8)-5 (3.8)-6 (2.8)
February 25-8.8-6 (2.8)-5 (3.8)-6 (2.8)
February 24-5.6-7 (1.4)-5 (0.6)-8 (2.4)
February 212.32 (0.3)4 (1.7)5 (2.7)
February 201.60 (1.6)6 (4.4)8 (6.4)
February 190.43 (2.6)4 (3.6)4 (3.6)
February 183.13 (0.1)5 (1.9)7 (3.9)
February 183.13 (0.1)5 (1.9)7 (3.9)
February 173.85 (1.2)7 (3.2)6 (2.2)
February 162.34 (1.7)5 (2.7)7 (4.7)
February 132.6-1 (3.6)0 (2.6)-1 (3.6)
February 132.6-1 (3.6)0 (2.6)-1 (3.6)
February 12-3.9-2 (1.9)-3 (0.9)-3 (0.9)
February 12-3.9-2 (1.9)-3 (0.9)-3 (0.9)
February 11-1.8-4 (2.2)-5 (3.2)-4 (2.2)
February 10-7.2-1 (6.2)-3 (4.2)-1 (6.2)
February 10-7.2-1 (6.2)-3 (4.2)-1 (6.2)
February 09-13.7-13 (0.7)-11 (2.7)-9 (4.7)
February 08-18.5-18 (0.5)-17 (1.5)-18 (0.5)
February 08-18.5-18 (0.5)-17 (1.5)-18 (0.5)
February 07-18.5-18 (0.5)-17 (1.5)-16 (2.5)
February 06-16.2-17 (0.8)-15 (1.2)-14 (2.2)
February 06-16.2-17 (0.8)-15 (1.2)-14 (2.2)
February 05-15.9-15 (0.9)-15 (0.9)-14 (1.9)
February 04-9.3-11 (1.7)-12 (2.7)-13 (3.7)
February 03-13.1-12 (1.1)-12 (1.1)-11 (2.1)
February 02-13.6-14 (0.4)-13 (0.6)-13 (0.6)
February 01-13.9-13 (0.9)-14 (0.1)-13 (0.9)
January 31-3.3-5 (1.7)-7 (3.7)-6 (2.7)
January 29-4.90 (4.9)-2 (2.9)-1 (3.9)
January 29-4.90 (4.9)-2 (2.9)-1 (3.9)
January 28-1.4-1 (0.4)-2 (0.6)-5 (3.6)
January 27-3.3-3 (0.3)-5 (1.7)-3 (0.3)
January 27-3.3-3 (0.3)-5 (1.7)-3 (0.3)
January 26-8.5-7 (1.5)-6 (2.5)-8 (0.5)
January 25-6.9-5 (1.9)-4 (2.9)-5 (1.9)
January 210.61 (0.4)2 (1.4)2 (1.4)
January 20-3.9-1 (2.9)1 (4.9)3 (6.9)
January 19-0.84 (4.8)6 (6.8)5 (5.8)
January 180.4-4 (4.4)5 (4.6)6 (5.6)
January 16-5.4-5 (0.4)-5 (0.4)-6 (0.6)
January 15-9-4 (5.0)-7 (2.0)-9 (0.0)
January 14-14.8-10 (4.8)-10 (4.8)-8 (6.8)
January 14-14.8-10 (4.8)-10 (4.8)-8 (6.8)
January 14-14.8-10 (4.8)-10 (4.8)-8 (6.8)
January 13-19-16 (3.0)-12 (7.0)-13 (6.0)
January 12-24.40 (24.4)-23 (1.4)-22 (2.4)
January 11-25.8-21 (4.8)-20 (5.8)-20 (5.8)
January 11-25.8-21 (4.8)-20 (5.8)-20 (5.8)
January 10-17.3-18 (0.7)-17 (0.3)-18 (0.7)
January 09-19.8-17 (2.8)-19 (0.8)-18 (1.8)
January 08-16.8-19 (2.2)-18 (1.2)-18 (1.2)
January 08-16.8-19 (2.2)-18 (1.2)-18 (1.2)
January 07-22.3-11 (11.3)-17 (5.3)-20 (2.3)
January 06-16.3-20 (3.7)-20 (3.7)-20 (3.7)
January 05-20.4-20 (0.4)-22 (1.6)-17 (3.4)
January 05-20.4-20 (0.4)-22 (1.6)-17 (3.4)
January 05-20.4-20 (0.4)-22 (1.6)-17 (3.4)
January 04-23.8-21 (2.8)-20 (3.8)-20 (3.8)
January 04-23.8-21 (2.8)-20 (3.8)-20 (3.8)
January 03-20-19 (1.0)-19 (1.0)-18 (2.0)
January 02-16.2-13 (3.2)-15 (1.2)-16 (0.2)
January 02-16.2-13 (3.2)-15 (1.2)-16 (0.2)
January 01-11.3-12 (0.7)-12 (0.7)-11 (0.3)

 
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