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Herd Immunity?

70`s guy
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 440

70`s guy
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 440

Herd Immunity?
8/30/2020 at 10:02 PM

I've been watching the numbers on "Worldometer" as I know many of others do as well. I find it interesting that one democratic country (Sweden) didn't lock down as much as others did. I don't think they ever shut down restaurants, theaters, schools as well as ever mandating masks. It's totally contrary to what we've all been hearing and doing in Canada. Granted, they were hit hard initially with many more deaths than most other countries and they failed to protect their nursing homes, hospitals as they should have. One still has to wonder now though if their "Herd Immunity" approach was the right one. If all we look at, are Covid deaths, maybe they were wrong. However, if we consider the socio/economic consequences of the measures taken by Canada for example, the pain will go on far after the virus is gone. I bring up "herd Immunity" because in looking at the latest numbers I realize that in August, Canada has reported 182 Covid deaths while Sweden has reported only 61. Canada has 3 times the population of Sweden so the numbers should be about right until you consider the strict measures that we still have in place in comparison. Also interesting is that the magnitude in the "death spread" between the two countries is much, much wider as the days/weeks go by. For example, the last 15 days have Sweden reporting 17 deaths while Canada reported 91. The jury is still out on if Sweden did it right, but I think the scale is starting to tilt in their direction. Only time will tell for sure.
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 4183

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 4183

Sweden
8/30/2020 at 11:02 PM

You're right that it will only be in retrospect that we will be able to know if Sweden had the right approach. It's simply too soon to tell.

But a few things to ponder when we're discussing Sweden:

1. While they didn't have mandates like many places, they did have recommendations to do similar things. Their population, generally, is much more trusting of the government and had a high degree of compliance even though those recommendations weren't orders like they are in places like Canada. Or Italy, or France for that matter. In essence, Sweden has existed in a semi-locked down state since the beginning, with businesses pivoting to comply with recommendations and the population also following them. The difference being they could trust their populations to comply with "recommendations" vs. "orders".

2. Comparing their rates to someplace like Canada or the US isn't actually a fair comparison because there are significant cultural differences (see point 1). If you compare them with their other Nordic neighbours, they have fared significantly worse than their neighbours that did mandate closures.

3. Even though they were able to keep more businesses etc open, their economy is still trashed.

4. Sweden had one of the highest rates of telecommunters/remote workers in the world pre-pandemic.

5. Sweden has one of the highest numbers of single-person households in the world.

6. Preliminary antibody testing has demonstrated hardly anyone has immunity. It's suspected, which has been suspected for awhile now, that infection doesn't confer anything but short-term immunity, measured in weeks or many a couple of months.

Sweden might very well be a success story. We don't know. But we do know culture plays a significant role in how well (or poorly) a country responds to their situation. You just have to look to the US to see how their culture has played a significant role. Sweden is just the other end of the spectrum.

Edited by Abbysmum, 2020-08-30 23:03:33
70`s guy
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 440

70`s guy
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 440

Good points
8/30/2020 at 11:28 PM

Abbysmum said "You're right that it will only be in retrospect that we will be able to know if Sweden had the right approach. It's simply too soon to tell.

But a few things to ponder when we're discussing Sweden:

1. While they didn't have mandates like many places, they did have recommendations to do similar things. Their population, generally, is much more trusting of the government and had a high degree of compliance even though those recommendations weren't orders like they are in places like Canada. Or Italy, or France for that matter. In essence, Sweden has existed in a semi-locked down state since the beginning, with businesses pivoting to comply with recommendations and the population also following them. The difference being they could trust their populations to comply with "recommendations" vs. "orders".

2. Comparing their rates to someplace like Canada or the US isn't actually a fair comparison because there are significant cultural differences (see point 1). If you compare them with their other Nordic neighbours, they have fared significantly worse than their neighbours that did mandate closures.

3. Even though they were able to keep more businesses etc open, their economy is still trashed.

4. Sweden had one of the highest rates of telecommunters/remote workers in the world pre-pandemic.

5. Sweden has one of the highest numbers of single-person households in the world.

6. Preliminary antibody testing has demonstrated hardly anyone has immunity. It's suspected, which has been suspected for awhile now, that infection doesn't confer anything but short-term immunity, measured in weeks or many a couple of months.

Sweden might very well be a success story. We don't know. But we do know culture plays a significant role in how well (or poorly) a country responds to their situation. You just have to look to the US to see how their culture has played a significant role. Sweden is just the other end of the spectrum.

Edited by Abbysmum, 2020-08-30 23:03:33"
Agree that there are cultural differences. All countries economies including Sweden will suffer greatly as business trade is not restrained to inside borders only. I don’t know for sure, but suspect that MSM in Sweden have not been spreading as much fear regarding the virus as we have seen here. It’ll be very interested to see how Sweden goes through the flu season in comparison to other countries. I’ve also heard experts say that herd immunity won’t work. Is it possible that some don’t want herd immunity to work? Again, glad Sweden did it differently so in the end we’ll see if we were misled.
cheeseburgermonster
Joined: August
Posts: 119

cheeseburgermonster
Joined: August
Posts: 119

...just
8/31/2020 at 12:00 AM

curious, how did people overcome viruses etc before if not herd immunity (let the body's immune system build its own antibodies?) and good hygeine ? Didn't we go through swine flu and sars without lockdowns and closing the economy? I just wonder if it's only spreading more because we came out of a lockdown (where some will say that makes our immune systems weaker?). I know of 3 people who had it before it was announced the lockdown and they were healthy and one had bit of breathing issues while she was sick because she smoked, but they recoverd and she is 71. Another was a young girl in a family but the rest of the family didn't get sick from her. I also know of two other people who had it in the past few months and they had simular symptoms to swine flu that I had but recovered and one was around 68 and the other 31. All of these people had never been so sick in their lives and know it was covid. It seems those with underlying conditions are the ones who seem to pass away the most ?
I caught swine flu in Ireland and it was really nasty and it lasted over a week (constant coughing, sweating, fever, bed ridden, exhausted etc but I took thyme oil and manuka honey to help get better enough to see a doc there where I was given some steroid drugs to help) but the world didn't shut down. Sweden might have had the right idea.

Edited by cheeseburgermonster, 2020-08-31 00:30:35
Bass-ic
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 168

Bass-ic
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 168

who knows
8/31/2020 at 12:03 AM

there might never be a vaccine ( hope there will be). Other diseases such as sars, hiv and others have no vaccine and then whats next in line. Practicing Personal hygiene and keep washed hands and keep hands off the face. Thats the way I view the situation as we have to live with it.

Edited by Bass-ic, 2020-08-31 00:04:45
Gussins
Joined: June
Posts: 213

Gussins
Joined: June
Posts: 213

There
8/31/2020 at 12:36 AM

is no such thing as herd immunity without long-lasting antibodies in the system unfortunately.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15583

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15583

Slow Burn
8/31/2020 at 3:40 AM

See myth #8:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nine-covid-19-myths-that-just-wont-go-away/
I thought this story from just a couple days ago really put the general approach we’re seeing in Canada and a best-case “slow burn” of the virus into perspective:
https://www.utoronto.ca/news/canada-s-pandemic-slow-burn-best-possible-scenario-under-circumstances-u-t-health-experts

Lets look at deaths per 100k population so far:
Sweden: 57.16
USA: 55.86
Canada: 24.72
Manitoba: 1.02

As much as Covid looks to be more marathon than sprint with its share of ups and downs, if Canada and Manitoba’s disciplined approach has us at those numbers it’s a pretty one-sided discussion at this point.

As an academic debate, I imagine "Sweden vs the world" will draw its share of interest for a while yet but when I start to see words like “mislead” I take undertones of conspiracy theory thinking that does nobody any real good. Nobody wants their community to become the next Lombardy/Wuhan/NYC at the hands of a virus that has proven it can be absolutely devastating when it reaches a caseload that the medical system can’t handle... it’s that edge that anyone considering suggesting a full-on blitz to widespread theoretical immunity are asking us to teeter on whether unintentional or not.

Its important to stay the course, trusting the overall direction that medical pros have us on in this country.
Millenial
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 115

Millenial
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 115

Like Adam said,
8/31/2020 at 9:18 AM

"Nobody wants their community to become the next Lombardy/Wuhan/NYC at the hands of a virus that has proven it can be absolutely devastating when it reaches a caseload that the medical system can’t handle."

To me this seems to be the main point of concern. The reality is that by implementing the strict lockdown measures, we are half focused on keeping people healthy, and half focused on making sure that our medical system can handle the cases that do arise. Until/unless we see a vaccine, we will simply continue to see cases of Covid19. I would prefer our hospitals and healthcare workers be able to handle those cases will their full ability than have to decide who gets to see a hospital bed and who doesn't. Herd immunity comes with time.