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The Province has issued Friday's COVID-19 bulletin at: https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49879 A death has been reported in the Prairie Mountain Health region, a male in his 80s linked to the Gilbert Plains personal care home outbreak. A local perspective on data released alongside today’s update is below. BRANDON: Total cases on dashboard: 469 (+19 or +108 since November 1) Active cases on dashboard: 103 (+17) Recoveries on dashboard: 365 (+2) Deaths: 1 (no change) It was stated that the outbreak at Fairview Personal Care Home in Brandon is at 18 cases. The increase of 19 in Brandon is the highest in data in nearly three months (August 29). PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION: Reported new cases: 27 Total cases on dashboard: 892 (+25 or +260 since November 1) Active cases on dashboard: 247 (+19) Recoveries on dashboard: 637 (+5) Deaths: 8 (+1) Current Hospitalizations: 6 (no change) ICU patients: 1 (no change) Compared to yesterday, these are the differences in PMH case breakdown by age group in differentiating provincial data released yesterday vs today: 90-99: +5 female, +1 male 80-89: +5 female, +2 male 70-79: +2 female, + 1 male 60-69: +1 male 50-59: +1 male 40-49: +1 male 30-39: +2 female, +2 male 20-29: +1 male 10-19: +1 female, -1 male 0-9: +1 male In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting 438 new cases of COVID-19 and a five day test positivity rate of 13.7% in Manitoba.
Not disclosed. What Dr. Roussin did say on I believe Thursday (paraphrasing, maybe someone else that was listening can add) was that in this region, our positivity rate was in the vicinity of what it was when our previous restrictions were put in place during the summer outbreak we saw. This will be a moving target... with the 19 new Brandon cases announced yesterday and the size of the outbreak at Fairview I'll guess that the arrow is pointing up at the moment. This isn't positivity rate... but for a little more context on where we're at as a city, this graph plots the daily increase in case counts for Brandon that has shown up on the provincial dashboard going back to when they started releasing Brandon data in mid-August.
That and connections between this community and Steinbach are more than I suspect some realize. I know of a wedding that took place in Steinbach towards the end of October (before the shift to red) with a guest list of more than 80 that included a good-sized local contingent. The Steinbach MLA himself was on that guest list so I’m sure all precautions were taken and we'd be well-past the incubation period of the virus... but we shouldn’t assume we’re an island!
As far as impact on other hospitals of Steinbach's caseload, worth noting that since November 5 there have been nine cases of STARS Air Ambulance being dispatched to Steinbach for what's described as inter-facility transfers according to STARS' Twitter. Can't say by that that they are for sure all COVID-related calls but no other community in Western Canada comes even close to that number of calls over that time frame.
Abbysmum explains it well by my understanding... if for example 50 are tested in an outbreak situation and 25 come back positive that will have a bigger effect on a region's overall percentage the smaller the region is.
Just personally for my own understanding I'd still like to see data at at least the Prairie Mountain level. With population of over 170k it should be a reasonable sample size. They'd just have to share how many are tested in each region daily and we would have that percentage, but maybe there are other challenges in putting out data that useful.
Seems to vary by province on whether they give testing numbers beyond the provincial level. BC, Alberta and Sask do look like they release test data by region/health authority on their stats pages, but even then it doesn't look like you could expect it to as far down as the city level for a city our size. Ontario and Quebec from what I can see only give daily test data at the provincial level.
I know a young lady that was invited to this wedding and chose not to go. She watched the live stream and was horrified to see that the only people wearing masks were the people serving the food. No wonder Steinbach is in such a dire situation.
I’m on the side of the more data and transparency the better, but it must sometimes be a tough decision by the powers that be on what to release and what not to since some will read into stats improperly, either innocently or to feed confirmation biases. Classic example I saw earlier this month was in a reply on a prominent local Facebook page where someone on the misinfo side of the fence dangerously posted with confidence the false info that since Winnipeg’s test positivity rate was 9.3% at the time and Manitoba’s was 9.5%, Manitoba outside of the perimeter must have next to no Covid based on subtracting the two numbers. That was of course false and based on those stats the rest of the province was higher than Winnipeg to the point of bringing the average up. The concerning part was that before it was deleted the post got a lot of likes from others who read it and obviously wrongly believed that Manitoba outside of Winnipeg was next to nil. It has to be incredibly frustrating to see stats used dangerously like that, as much as to someone like yourself might find it frustrating to not have all of the data to fully understand present state. As far as the Steinbach wedding example, I really didn’t want to make this thread about it so much as use as an example that Steinbach and Brandon are more connected than some might think. I’ll admit that even in pre-Red times where it was allowed and with precautions like splitting people into separate rooms it did raise an eyebrow to hear about an inter-city wedding.... but in this case I’d think we would’ve heard about a local cluster from it by now if anything serious came of it. At any rate we shouldn't view that city's off-the-charts positivity rate as being on a separate planet, even though with the hunkering down to Red I'm sure a lot of the lines between the communities will be paused.
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