2020sucks said "So with Christmas still a month away how can they predict the numbers won’t be better? Does this mean the masks and restrictions are not working? If they aren’t working what more can and needs to be done? How long has it been since Winnipeg went into red restrictions? Does doctor roussin not say it takes an incubation period to see any difference. And even when Winnipeg went to red there were people allegedly travelling to other locations for their parties and get together’s. So when should we start seeing results from code red in the province? "
We should have started seeing results already, but too many people weren't obeying the rules (as you noted) and there were still too many exceptions. It's only just now (as reported yesterday) that we're seeing the average number of contacts going down, which is really the end game for getting numbers down. The virus can't spread if you have minimal contacts.
We can't safely gather until we've got a good grasp on the numbers for *at least* 2 incubation cycles, which is 4 weeks. So we're looking at probably minimally into the New Year at this point, as numbers have not yet leveled off and the positivity rate is still very high. You can start ticking off the 4 weeks once those start trending the right way.
But remember, Australia just had a 112 day lockdown, much stricter than ours. That's how long it took them to get it under control.