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Well here we go. More than one-third of Manitoba's new cases on Wednesday — 60 — and more than 400 contacts have been definitively linked to holiday gatherings. I want to say thank you to everyone who followed the health directives to not gather with friends, family and to stay home through the holiday season, as our family did. To the ones who did not follow these directives I also want to say shame on you for your part in all of this as I am sure now that we will not be allowed to come out of Code Red on January 8, 2021. The rules are put in place to protect everyone and I really don’t understand why the people who decided to gather through the holidays thought it was ok for them. UGHHH!!!
The encouraging-ish news is that very few of these cases they're talking about so far will be tied to Brandon or PMH. The increase in case count in Brandon reported over the past five days has been 3, 3, 1, 4, 4. In all of PMH over those five days the reported new daily case counts have been 13 (multi-day), 8, 7, 9, 12. The chart I've attached is of daily increases in the Brandon case counts based on daily data published on the provincial dashboard (keeping in mind that there were a couple days over the holidays where data wasn't released until the following day). Not a time at all for any kind of victory lap since we definitely had our share of non-compliance over the holidays and its still the same virus capable of spreading here every bit as much as it is anywhere else... but I'm hopeful that on average more folks are doing the right thing here. Like we saw with the outbreaks at the jail and Fairview, all it takes is one case getting into an environment that the virus likes spreading in and we have a new problem.... and a problem you dont necessarily know you have until many days after the fact because of delay between when someone gets the virus and when it shows up in testing. Especially knowing that we need to continue to listen for and follow guidance as we hopefully minimize impact of the virus on this community until more and more vaccine doses are available!
Also just further to a prev post on testing. please see link below for more details. From the provincial Covid site, "Testing is critical, as it helps identify and isolate cases and contacts early. This helps to limit further spread and protect those at increased risk. " If you have symptoms, the self-assessment tool to determine next steps is at: https://sharedhealthmb.ca/covid19/screening-tool/ Full details on testing in the province at: https://manitoba.ca/covid19/testing/index.html
Just to followup on prev comments... Though we had a very positive start to the year in case counts, Brandon had its fourth-worst day of the pandemic today in terms of new cases with 21 reported. Nature of cases isn't clear, though an outbreak at Samaritan House Safe and Warm Shelter was declared. Other thing that's stood out over these past three days is that 18 out of the increase of 82 cases in Prairie Mountain Health has been in the 10-19 age bracket. 15 have come in age 80 and up.
Further to discussion on age... Keep in mind that the jail and Fairview outbreaks will have an outsized impact on comparisons, but just looking at daily Prairie Mountain Health age data that I've recorded from what the province has published: For Nov 9-Dec 9 there was an increase of 66 cases reported in the under 20 age bracket. For Dec 9-Jan 9 there was an increase of 109 cases reported in the same under 20 age. At the other end of the spectrum: Age 80 and over had 94 increase in reported cases from Nov 9 - Dec 9 Age 80 and over had 25 increase in reported cases from Dec 9 - Jan 9 All that said, the highest number of cases in both timeframes was the 20-39 age bracket.... 149 from Nov 9 - Dec 9 and 178 from Dec 9 to Jan 9. Graphs below show portion of cases for the age brackets over the time frames:
Or more specifically on the subject of cases since Christmas, the breakdown of increase by age bracket from the final update before Christmas to today: Age 0-19: 44 Age 20-39: 55 Age 40-59: 43 Age 60-79: 25 Age 80 and over: 15
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