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Biden Putting Kibosh on Keystone XL

Biden Putting Kibosh on Keystone XL

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Biden Putting Kibosh on Keystone XL
Jan 18 at 5:46 PM

Hard to believe Biden is not even sworn in yet and this news comes. Well, whether you are pro-pipeline or not, if this news is true it will affect many jobs on both sides of the 49th parallel including some serious spin-off economic benefits for many businesses and service.

As much as I am for renewable and green energy including the building of the electric car plant in Ontario, I hope our leaders in Canada and USA can go to the bargaining table in this one.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/america-votes/an-outright-no-biden-s-day-1-keystone-xl-kibosh-bodes-ill-for-canada-u-s-ties-1.5271625
Edited by admin, 2021-01-18 20:37:44. Reason: title
passingthru
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passingthru
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so, the feds are supporting Keystone ...
Jan 18 at 7:03 PM

and yet you state Trudeau is putting the kibosh on Keystone. Indeed Keystone construction is ongoing in Canada - which it wouldn't be if the feds were against it. . Talk about somebody telling lies ...
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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Jan 18 at 7:03 PM

This is excellent news! Very happy to hear it.
Adam

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Adam
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Keystone XL
Jan 18 at 8:56 PM

From the link below "Canada might already be over-piped" when you consider Enbridge expansion and Trans Mountain in the works to add quite a bit of capacity within these next couple years:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/~2120903
Analysts saying that the best outcome for TC Energy's stock now might just be for them to walk away, though with some of the billions already committed by various parties there's more to come on this one in the news.
Definitely won't be a big change overnight and there could be a real good run for Canadian energy in the nearer-term post-pandemic.. but long-term we really need to shift more and more focus to what comes next. Trends towards EV (Tesla stock craze & associated capital and more manufacturers getting serious about bringing vehicles to market) and renewables seem to have accelerated during the past handful of months. Heck even Saudis are talking about a car-free city in the works in a decade or so. Here's hoping that with some of the billions made over these next number of years that the major Canadian energy players pour more and more into transitioning to what's next because I have a feeling EVs will have a more meaningful chunk of the mainstream sooner than some might think!
Cjford
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Cjford
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Jan 18 at 8:58 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "This is excellent news! Very happy to hear it. "
Must be nice to live in your imaginary work where the world doesn't need oil and everything is made from unicorn farts and tinkerbells fairy dust.
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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...
Jan 18 at 9:22 PM

Cjford said "Must be nice to live in your imaginary work where the world doesn't need oil and everything is made from unicorn farts and tinkerbells fairy dust. "
Must be nice to throw around strawmans without a care in the world
Trevor

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Trevor
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...
Jan 18 at 9:40 PM

Not overly good news if I'm being totally honest, and not just cause I have family currently working on Keystone. Our current society is going to need fossil fuels for a long, long time. Sure it seems the automotive industry is going electric, which there's some fairly interesting options out there. However there is no alternative fuel for the ag industry. Electric tractors aren't feasible, and as the population grows there's more and more mouths to feed. Same for the trucking industry. the Tesla semi and the Nikolai model aren't long range options, not can they pull the weights moving up and down our roads.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be exploring alternative energies, but they aren't usable in industry.
Trevor

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Trevor
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Reasonable question
Jan 18 at 9:52 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "Must be nice to throw around strawmans without a care in the world "
It's a relevant argument. With how much society relies on the oil and gas industry on a daily basis, and how much the oil and gas industry is intertwined in pretty much every other industry, how to you plan on replacing those requirements??
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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..
Jan 18 at 9:58 PM

We can sustain on our current oil production. It's not like suddenly all of our oil will stop being produced and that's what you're making it sound like and that's what the straw man was. It isn't relevant because it's not what I was saying at all.

We have to work on reducing reliance on oil, not increasing it. A project like this is not a step in the right direction.
Trevor

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Trevor
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...
Jan 18 at 10:20 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "We can sustain on our current oil production. It's not like suddenly all of our oil will stop being produced and that's what you're making it sound like and that's what the straw man was. It isn't relevant because it's not what I was saying at all.

We have to work on reducing reliance on oil, not increasing it. A project like this is not a step in the right direction. "
General consensus is society hasn't hit peak oil yet, and won't for another 5-20 years. So we still need more production.
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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..
Jan 18 at 10:25 PM

Trevor said "General consensus is society hasn't hit peak oil yet, and won't for another 5-20 years. So we still need more production. "
Yeah I'm gonna need a source on this please. I have never seen this general consensus I'd be interested.

What I have seen is a few predictions , some of which claim that we may already have passed the peak.

Either way, looking forward to your source with a general consensus among economists, geologists, etc.
Trevor

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Trevor
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Jan 18 at 10:31 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "Yeah I'm gonna need a source on this please. I have never seen this general consensus I'd be interested.

What I have seen is a few predictions , some of which claim that we may already have passed the peak.

Either way, looking forward to your source with a general consensus among economists, geologists, etc. "
"Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[2] As of 2020, peak oil forecasts range from 2019[3] to the 2040s,[4] depending on economics[5] and how governments respond to global warming.[6]"

From the Wikipedia page for peak oil. So I was short by 5 years, sue me.
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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.
Jan 18 at 10:40 PM

Trevor said ""Peak oil is the year when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline.[2] As of 2020, peak oil forecasts range from 2019[3] to the 2040s,[4] depending on economics[5] and how governments respond to global warming.[6]"

From the Wikipedia page for peak oil. So I was short by 5 years, sue me. "
So you're saying that there is or isn't a general consensus on when peak oil consumption occurs? Because in the post to which I'm responding you are saying that it depends on many factors and MAY have even already past.

But in a few posts above you say that there is a general consensus that it will occur in 5-10 years and fail to mention the affect of other factors.

I'm really confused, which one is it?

I don't mean to be pedantic, but it seems your entire argument depends upon this fact so I just want to ensure we are both on the same page.

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 22:43:01
Trevor

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Trevor
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....
Jan 18 at 10:46 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "So you're saying that there is or isn't a general consensus on when peak oil consumption occurs? Because in the post to which I'm responding you are saying that it depends on many factors and MAY have even already past.

But in a few posts above you say that there is a general consensus that it will occur in 5-10 years and fail to mention the affect of other factors.

I'm really confused, which one is it?

I don't mean to be pedantic, but it seems your entire argument depends upon this fact so I just want to ensure we are both on the same page.

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 22:43:01"
I'm saying I was off by 6 years on the close end. Rather than being in 2025-2040 like I originally said it is 2019-2040. Pretty simple to understand really.
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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..
Jan 18 at 10:55 PM

Trevor said "I'm saying I was off by 6 years on the close end. Rather than being in 2025-2040 like I originally said it is 2019-2040. Pretty simple to understand really. "
May be simple but you're saying two different things so forgive me for being a tad confused. I'm sure things are far simpler in your mind!

Anyways, hypothetically, if peak oil did occur in 2019 or 2020, why would we need to keep expanding? If it hasn't, what makes you think that we can't sustain ourselves on current production?

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 22:56:09
Trevor

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Trevor
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.....
Jan 18 at 11:12 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "May be simple but you're saying two different things so forgive me for being a tad confused. I'm sure things are far simpler in your mind!

Anyways, hypothetically, if peak oil did occur in 2019 or 2020, why would we need to keep expanding? If it hasn't, what makes you think that we can't sustain ourselves on current production?

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 22:56:09"
Well if it has, we wouldn't need to. If it hasn't, why shouldn't we support our own industry rather than importing foreign oil? Why should we tie ourselves to one consumer of our oil? Why shouldn't Canada be able to sell our products on a global market?

(FYI I realize Keystone only goes to the States, but Trans Mountain gives access to the international market)
Farmergeorge
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Farmergeorge
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.
Jan 18 at 11:15 PM

Trevor said "Not overly good news if I'm being totally honest, and not just cause I have family currently working on Keystone. Our current society is going to need fossil fuels for a long, long time. Sure it seems the automotive industry is going electric, which there's some fairly interesting options out there. However there is no alternative fuel for the ag industry. Electric tractors aren't feasible, and as the population grows there's more and more mouths to feed. Same for the trucking industry. the Tesla semi and the Nikolai model aren't long range options, not can they pull the weights moving up and down our roads.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be exploring alternative energies, but they aren't usable in industry. "
Agriculture equipment manufacturers are actually working diligently on prototypes to explore the use of alternative fuels and power systems including but not limited to highly fuel efficient diesel electric hybrid drives. It is also possible to produce fuel from crops and this is now a very efficient process capable of producing a net gain. Use of Gps in agriculture has vastly reduced overlapping and wasted inputs and this will continue as we Introduce some self driving equipment. Larger fuel efficient equipment can also produce gains in more acres covered per hour and gains in crop yield and improved productivity in livestock production are reducing the amount of fuel and energy needed to produce food. It is possible to produce energy using bio digesters, it’s happening in Europe. We can and will reduce our fossil fuel dependancy in North American agriculture , we will adapt or we will fail.
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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..
Jan 18 at 11:22 PM

Trevor said "Well if it has, we wouldn't need to. If it hasn't, why shouldn't we support our own industry rather than importing foreign oil? Why should we tie ourselves to one consumer of our oil? Why shouldn't Canada be able to sell our products on a global market?

(FYI I realize Keystone only goes to the States, but Trans Mountain gives access to the international market) "
We can and already do all of those things you mentioned. Cancelling the keystone XL doesn't change any of that.

Truly, I do not understand your argument here. At first you claim the reason for your apparent unwavering support is sustainability issues. Now you're deferring to economic reasoning? Which one is it? Once again, you have me a bit confused and I'm rather reluctant to say that it's my own doing.

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 23:28:48
Trevor

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Jan 18 at 11:26 PM

Farmergeorge said "Agriculture equipment manufacturers are actually working diligently on prototypes to explore the use of alternative fuels and power systems including but not limited to highly fuel efficient diesel electric hybrid drives. It is also possible to produce fuel from crops and this is now a very efficient process capable of producing a net gain. Use of Gps in agriculture has vastly reduced overlapping and wasted inputs and this will continue as we Introduce some self driving equipment. Larger fuel efficient equipment can also produce gains in more acres covered per hour and gains in crop yield and improved productivity in livestock production are reducing the amount of fuel and energy needed to produce food. It is possible to produce energy using bio digesters, it’s happening in Europe. We can and will reduce our fossil fuel dependancy in North American agriculture , we will adapt or we will fail. "
I know they are. I think short term (5-15 years) will see the diesel engine in a tractor/combine/sprayer/etc. move from a mode of propulsion to a genset powering electric wheel motors. There's a Brazilian company already working on it, but so far they only make it in a self propelled planter.
DevilsAdvocate
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DevilsAdvocate
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Uhh...
Jan 18 at 11:37 PM

Trevor said "I know they are. I think short term (5-15 years) will see the diesel engine in a tractor/combine/sprayer/etc. move from a mode of propulsion to a genset powering electric wheel motors. There's a Brazilian company already working on it, but so far they only make it in a self propelled planter. "
"However there is no alternative fuel for the ag industry. Electric tractors aren't feasible"

This is a direct quote from your first post in this discussion....

Now I'm certain the confusion isn't my fault.

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 23:38:35
Trevor

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Trevor
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.....
Jan 18 at 11:55 PM

DevilsAdvocate said "We can and already do all of those things you mentioned. Cancelling the keystone XL doesn't change any of that.

Truly, I do not understand your argument here. At first you claim the reason for your apparent unwavering support is sustainability issues. Now you're deferring to economic reasoning? Which one is it? Once again, you have me a bit confused and I'm rather reluctant to say that it's my own doing.

Edited by DevilsAdvocate, 2021-01-18 23:28:48"
No we can't. BC has blocked every recent attempt to get more product to the coast. Trans Canada was vetoed by Quebec as well. In 2019 98% (3.7 million barrels a day) of our exports went to the States. ( https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/crude-oil-facts/20064) If only 2% of our exports go to international market, that's hardly a good ratio.

It's both economic and sustainability, but honestly they're quite intertwined. Globally we use approximately 91 million barrels a day. Why shouldn't Canadian oil be as much of that as possible?
Mater
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Mater
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Jan 19 at 12:09 AM

@ Devilsadvocate A person with your vocabulary should have no problems deciphering what Trevor said. According to a bunch of smart people, we probably haven't hit peak oil yet. Since we haven't, we may as well make some money and sell it to others (not just the states, but global markets).

To correct one of your thoughts... An oil well does not produce a set number of barrels for the duration of it's life. There are a whole pile of factors. They can come on strong and die off quickly or stay low and steady for many years. Long story short, you stop drilling wells today and tomorrow your production starts to go down.

Food consumption will rise with population growth. Semis and farm equipment will be using oil for years to come. The genset powering the electric motors Trevor was talking about probably doesn't run on air.

I would love to see where they used a crop as a fuel and had a net gain. I'll pick on our beloved corn for a minute. It of course can be used to make fuel. It's been shown time and time again by the time you add all the energy imputed to seeding, growing and harvesting plus actually transforming it to a usable fuel, you're at a very negative gain. With population growth and land not falling out of the sky, you're better off feeding people with crops vs using it for fuel.
Farmergeorge
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Farmergeorge
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.
Jan 19 at 12:31 AM

Trevor said "I know they are. I think short term (5-15 years) will see the diesel engine in a tractor/combine/sprayer/etc. move from a mode of propulsion to a genset powering electric wheel motors. There's a Brazilian company already working on it, but so far they only make it in a self propelled planter. "
Major manufacturers including Agco and CNH have been working on prototype alternative fuels and drive systems for years, no doubt so has John Deere. Most of these technologies and the use of bio digesters are nothing new. All that is needed is improved technology and refinement to make these things more viable. Manufacturers have already made huge gains in recent years to reduce noxious gases produced and reduce fuel usage by agricultural equipment, expect alternative drive systems to reach the market place in a maximum 5 years. The consumer expects it!
Also don’t forget that in western Canada that we can farm the original solar converter very efficiently whilst capturing carbon in the soil. The humble cow converts grass and forage crops unpalatable to humans into highly nutritious, healthy , protein and vitamin rich food using a minimum amount of inputs. Using rotational grazing methods ( again has been around for centuries) we can use her to utilize and improve marginal soils and capture carbon back into a more natural carbon cycle. Integration of livestock in the correct manner is well documented to be capable of producing large gains in a more sustainable agriculture .

Edited by Farmergeorge, 2021-01-19 00:45:40
Farmergeorge
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Farmergeorge
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.
Jan 19 at 12:47 AM

Mater said "@ Devilsadvocate A person with your vocabulary should have no problems deciphering what Trevor said. According to a bunch of smart people, we probably haven't hit peak oil yet. Since we haven't, we may as well make some money and sell it to others (not just the states, but global markets).

To correct one of your thoughts... An oil well does not produce a set number of barrels for the duration of it's life. There are a whole pile of factors. They can come on strong and die off quickly or stay low and steady for many years. Long story short, you stop drilling wells today and tomorrow your production starts to go down.

Food consumption will rise with population growth. Semis and farm equipment will be using oil for years to come. The genset powering the electric motors Trevor was talking about probably doesn't run on air.

I would love to see where they used a crop as a fuel and had a net gain. I'll pick on our beloved corn for a minute. It of course can be used to make fuel. It's been shown time and time again by the time you add all the energy imputed to seeding, growing and harvesting plus actually transforming it to a usable fuel, you're at a very negative gain. With population growth and land not falling out of the sky, you're better off feeding people with crops vs using it for fuel. "
This is actually untrue. Many recent studies have shown that a net gain is very easily achievable producing ethanol and bio diesel from crops. However this is a small part of the overall solution. Reductions in fuel use will start using efficient diesel/electric hybrid drives, this is not new and has been used in trains for decades. Further reductions in fuel requirements are being made through better agronomy and improved understanding of our soils. One thing is for sure, technology and research doesn’t stand still , we will innovate, improve and change ever faster . It’s inevitable.
Mater
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Mater
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Jan 19 at 1:40 AM

I stand corrected. I have some catch up reading to do on corn to ethanol.

Personally, I can't wait till we are done with oil, but I also know it won't be tomorrow. It will be some time before we pass peak consumption, and then you still have the decline to ride down.
smalltownboy
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smalltownboy
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Peak oil outlook
Jan 19 at 6:16 AM

Interesting read on peak oil demand:

https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/moving-mountains-covid-19-and-peak-oil-demand
bean
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bean
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Jan 19 at 7:15 AM

Cancelling the pipeline will not save anything. It just adds to the amount of oil that will be transported by other methods mainly by train.

Building the pipeline does not increase anyone's reliance on oil or slow the transition to renewable energy. It just creates a more efficient safer way of transporting the oil that's already in demand.

What are all of these electric vehicles going to drive on when there is no asphalt? Alberta and Northern Saskatchewan crude is high in Asphalt content a product that is in high demand. The shale oil in Manitoba and other places in the USA produces almost none. Some of the traditional sources like venezuela have disappeared, leaving the USA and eastern Canada to increase imports from others.

Long story short is the world working to reduce the dependence on oil yes. Does the pipeline change that or increase oil demand of course not it's only meeting a current need, possibly displacing overseas imports produced by countries with less environmental regulations when it comes to oil production. It also increases efficiency of the transport for barrels of oil already being moved.
Farmergeorge
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Farmergeorge
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This
Jan 19 at 7:29 AM

smalltownboy said "Interesting read on peak oil demand:

https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/moving-mountains-covid-19-and-peak-oil-demand "
This is really only an analysts projection.
As governments continue to move mandates closer to ban the sale of vehicles with conventional engines and battery technology improves , demand for crude oil will likely drop. Post covid people will travel less, many more people will continue to work from home reducing vehicle use and the aviation industry will likely not return to its former strength or at least introduce alternative fuels already being tested. Carbon taxation ( which is not the greatest method available) will kick in costing us gradually more and will force people to make further changes to their lifestyle.
smalltownboy
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smalltownboy
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Analyst
Jan 19 at 7:57 AM

Sorry George but I am going to have to take Global financial analysts viewpoints over yours We will have to agree to disagree on this one. I hope maybe the end result will be somewhere in between our thought processes!
CourierGuy
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CourierGuy
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I went pretty deep on the whole peak oil conspiracy
Jan 19 at 8:11 AM

I think everyone in this thread is sort of saying the same thing. The whole AG and transportation issue is real, but it's going to have to be solved at some point...20 years or 100 years, what matters is we will run out of oil, if Combines and tractors can be electric we should be figuring that out now and if they can't we'll need a lot of lead time to come up with a solution.

I'm not an expert and I know that nothing can do what oil does, but the one constant that I found during my peak oil phase was everyone agrees that we cannot have "This" world without oil...We need a different world that is organized differently if we're going to transition off of oil. Maybe that means ONLY agriculture and long haul tractor trailers use oil? Maybe ONLY aircraft use oil and we use electric for everything else.

The XL pipeline was likely not necessary. Instead of spending a few billion on a pipeline why not build a refinery? The biggest issue is our oil sands oil is garbage, and even at higher prices the shale oil is better and cheaper to extract and distribute to the American market that we'd be selling to anyway. It's been a bit of a political football and there has been a lot of confusion with regard to it...but if it really was necessary or profitable it would get built.