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From the Environment Canada Special Weather Statement at the link below, Tuesday is looking like very possibly your last day of “fall” before Old Man Winter makes first inroads into Westman overnight tonight through Thursday and into Friday. This time of the year can be notoriously difficult to forecast when temps are right around freezing, though looking like a a little snow overnight tonight, a rain-snow mix with possible freezing rain on Wednesday... transitioning into full-on snow overnight into Thursday with the expected slight drop in temp. 10-20cm of white stuff expected by Friday. Higher ground a little further North in the Parkland could end up with 25-50(!!!) cm. Full weather statement at: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7#815597462100427628202111090501ws1171cwwg Brandon forecast at: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html Watches/warnings for Manitoba at: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb
Watch it unfold (or don't) from the comfort of behind your screen via the regularly updated webcam shot at:https://ebrandon.ca/weather.aspx
Not to get too far ahead, but Weather Network seeing possibility for another 5-10cm event on Tuesday of next week with temps just on the minus side all the way up until then:https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/manitoba/brandon
ECCC's Manitoba crew/Twitter account on-board with the forecast....Brandon in that 10-15cm zone by wakeup on Friday:
A strong system will bring the first significant snowfall of the season to southern #MB. General snowfall amounts of 15-25 cm with locally 40 cm+ possible. Highest amounts will be enhanced on the terrain along the SK border and south of the lakes. #mbstorm (1/2) pic.twitter.com/v4PC5UUPPV— ECCC Weather Manitoba (@ECCCWeatherMB) November 9, 2021
A strong system will bring the first significant snowfall of the season to southern #MB. General snowfall amounts of 15-25 cm with locally 40 cm+ possible. Highest amounts will be enhanced on the terrain along the SK border and south of the lakes. #mbstorm (1/2) pic.twitter.com/v4PC5UUPPV
Can take a little solace in being not too far from the 5-10cm zone. Not clear if that area is forecast lower because of expected system track, or if it's accounting for the impact elevation/terrain can have or all of the above but I dont imagine there's any harm in hoping that lighter area slides just a little to the Northeast :) They also give an idea of just how big the wind gusts with the system are expected to be:
An additional impact with this system will be reduced visibility in falling snow as well as locally blowing snow. The strongest wind gusts (up to 80 km/h) will occur in the southeast and in the Red River Valley between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/BeRA1ev9JR— ECCC Weather Manitoba (@ECCCWeatherMB) November 9, 2021
An additional impact with this system will be reduced visibility in falling snow as well as locally blowing snow. The strongest wind gusts (up to 80 km/h) will occur in the southeast and in the Red River Valley between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/BeRA1ev9JR
and for a little more technical look at what's forecast, this paste comes from the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre's Tuesday afternoon update (see link for the whole thing):
"SK/MB...FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THIS CHANGES TONIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST EJECTS AN IMPULSE WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW PROCEEDS TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN SK/MB ON WED/THUR, BRINGING THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. MILDER AIR/GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT FIRST, BUT EVENTUALLY THE SNOW WILL WIN OUT. SK SHOULD ESCAPE THE WORST, WITH A BAND OF PERHAPS 5-10 CM ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE STORM REALLY HITS IT'S STRIDE AS IT MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA, WITH INCREASED SNOW RATES, LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER SLR VALUES. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-20 CM CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN MB BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND OF THE MANITOBA LAKES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE PARKLANDS REGION OF WESTERN MANITOBA WILL BE HARDEST HIT, WITH UP TO 50 CM POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. "
Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre's morning update is pasted below. Pasting the Manitoba-specific stuff. Note the uncertainty on actual accumulation.... * * * * * * SK/MB...AN EVOLVING SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BAROCLINIC LOW OVER SOUTHERN SK THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW INTENSIFIES A SECOND SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SD INTO A SIGNIFICANT OCCLUDING LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. SNOW AND RAIN FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS PUSHED THRU SOUTHERN SK AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MB. AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE YELLOWHEAD WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WHILE THE REST MORE RAINY WEATHER, AT LEAST FOR TODAY. AS THE SECOND LOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, A NORTHEASTERLY CIRCULATION BRINGS COOLER AIR THRU THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES AND SNOW WILL PREVAIL. PREDICTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT. THE GROUND IS BARE AND ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF REGIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MARK TODAY. STRONGLY SUSPECT MOST GUIDANCE NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THESE FACTORS FOR ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE SIMPLE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPING AND SOME OR ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PARTIALLY RAIN TODAY IN THE MORE SOUTHERN REGIONS. AS A RESULT, FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY HANDED. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A RISK OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MB ESCARPMENT. LAKE ENHANCED OR EVEN LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES WILL BECOME IMPORTANT LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE MB LAKES. SURFACE WINDS IN SOUTHERN MB ON THURSDAY WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 70 KM/H BUT MAY BE CLOSER TO 90 IN THE UNSTABLE FLOW JUST OFF THE LAKES. * * * * * * * https://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html
Brandon included in an area that's now under a Snowfall Warning for today. Areas a little further West in Westman look to not quite be at warning levels... see map for who all is included: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb Brandon forecast from Env Canada has "5cm except 10cm over Eastern Sections" today and then the same tonight. Weather Network is showing maybe a little less.... About 5cm today, 1-3cm tonight, less than 1cm tomorrow. Looks like another bit of snowfall on Saturday now, Weather Network has it pegged at another 5cm: https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/manitoba/brandon
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