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Sturgis Bike Rally linked to 260,000 so far

Sturgis Bike Rally linked to 260,000 so far

Exhausted
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 1768

Exhausted
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 1768

Sturgis Bike Rally linked to 260,000 so far
9/9/2020 at 2:09 AM

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/health/coronavirus/u-s-biker-rally-may-have-led-to-260-000-new-covid-19-cases-study-1.5096667

This is an example of why Canada has strict regulations in place of gathering sizes, masks, fundamentals.

USA allow items like this to happen which results in this case 1/4 million plus people getting covid 19.

Manitoba freaks over 90 cases in a day how about 1/4 million: how would we react to that.

I saw pictures of the rally when it was happening shoulder to shoulder: no masks and certainly no hand washing, etc. going on.

This isn't the only example that happened in the states but shows clearly how not following public health regulations problems are created and not little ones like from a house party.

Thanks Manitoba Public Health for your advice and guidance to keep us in a good place.
Gussins
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 380

Gussins
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 380

Thankfully
9/9/2020 at 2:38 AM

we have a little more common sense than them (at least I choose to believe that). I have no sympathy for them...zero. They knew the risks but hey, why give up a good party in the middle of a pandemic? My question is how many innocent people will die because of the actions of these idiots? Sad.

Edited by Gussins, 2020-09-09 02:39:03
Iceman69
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 513

Iceman69
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 513

Yes
9/9/2020 at 6:08 AM

Canada as a whole country is doing well. Travel ban to the east should be lifted and no quarantining for 14 day if travelling within Canada.

Keep the border closed until atleast next spring.
melsey
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 905

melsey
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 905

....
9/9/2020 at 7:20 AM

interesting study based on projection:

A limitation of the study is that it was based on statistical methods, rather than tracking and surveying rally participants.

Here is an article based on actual numbers: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-death-coronavirus_n_5f4ff1a5c5b62b3add3b4cc3?ri18n=:true

Perhaps the difference explains why the study hasn’t been peer reviewed yet.

Edited by melsey, 2020-09-09 07:37:04
Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

No
9/9/2020 at 7:38 AM

Iceman69 said "Canada as a whole country is doing well. Travel ban to the east should be lifted and no quarantining for 14 day if travelling within Canada.

Keep the border closed until atleast next spring. "
We should be tightening up our travel restrictions and enforcing more quarantine. If we let our guard down now this virus could explode again very quickly especially as the colder months approach.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Covid
9/9/2020 at 7:59 AM

melsey said "interesting study based on projection:

A limitation of the study is that it was based on statistical methods, rather than tracking and surveying rally participants.

Here is an article based on actual numbers: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-death-coronavirus_n_5f4ff1a5c5b62b3add3b4cc3?ri18n&#61:true

Perhaps the difference explains why the study hasn’t been peer reviewed yet.

Edited by melsey, 2020-09-09 07:37:04"
Not exactly a secret that Covid has the ability to spread like wildfire in a population not prepared for or not taking proper measures for it to the point where it can overwhelm medical systems and lead to significant casualties (see Lombardy, NYC and Wuhan).

With what sounds like below average willingness to get tested, unfortunately the real
Impact of Sturgis will probably never be known and that we'll have to rely on best estimates based on confirmed cases from those that understand the virus and established trends surrounding its spread. One can only hope that those who chose to act irresponsibly and carried the virus home are returning to communities with enough measures in place, limitations on gatherings, a population that understands they need to stay home when sick, well-adopted physical distancing and mask usage to help mitigate the impact.
tlr
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 633

tlr
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 633

.....
9/9/2020 at 8:48 AM

melsey said "interesting study based on projection:

A limitation of the study is that it was based on statistical methods, rather than tracking and surveying rally participants.

Here is an article based on actual numbers: https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-death-coronavirus_n_5f4ff1a5c5b62b3add3b4cc3?ri18n=:true

Perhaps the difference explains why the study hasn’t been peer reviewed yet.

Edited by melsey, 2020-09-09 07:37:04"
Unfortunately there is no vaccine for stupidity . Perhaps that explains this....
TDCAU
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 108

TDCAU
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 108

260 or 250000
9/9/2020 at 11:37 AM

The 250000 could be fake news, hard to tell these days. I had read that there have been only 260 cases confirmed that are linked to Sturgis, here is one of those articles:

https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/
JRL
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 111

JRL
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 111

The other limit on counting
9/9/2020 at 12:00 PM

I agree that a statistical estimate on the numbers is just that... an estimate. However the number of recorded cases may also be influenced by various factors. For someone to count as a case they need to 1. Show symptoms 2. Feel it is necessary to report their illness or see a doctor 3. Have a doctor or be able to afford one 4. Not be worried about being put in isolation for two weeks and losing their job 5. Admit they were at Sturgis as part of the public health contract tracing if they are somewhere that's even trying to trace exposure 6. Have their case recorded and publicly linked to Sturgis. Sounds like its just as difficult as a statistical model.

I am worried about the divide that this highlights in our society. We should be worried about the spread, whether it was 250 or 250000 linked cases, not trying to decide which number is 'fake'.
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5043

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5043

not fake news
9/9/2020 at 12:56 PM

TDCAU said "The 250000 could be fake news, hard to tell these days. I had read that there have been only 260 cases confirmed that are linked to Sturgis, here is one of those articles:

https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/ "
It's not "fake news" in the sense that it's false. It's a statistical model, which has limitations and needs to be read as such. If you read the actual paper, it does a pretty good job of explaining how they modeled it and the reasons behind it.

Like any model, it does require some assumptions and makes no assertions that it's a full picture of what happened. But it does make sense of certain trends and timelines, and fit within the larger narrative of what happened in the US since then.

One interesting thing the paper did highlight was the local population around Sturgis spent less time at home during the rally than it did before and after (based on cellphone data). SD then had a large (+30%) spike in infections in the 2-3 weeks afterwards, when their numbers had been holding steady for quite a while before that despite having very few restrictions.

The areas that contributed the largest number of participants also saw a corresponding spike but much less, I think the average was about 10% increase - but the authors noted that those places almost universally had at least some restrictions such as masking, distancing requirements or closures.

It's important to note that their number isn't the number of people who caught Covid at Sturgis, but i:ncludes people who would have unknowningly brought it back with them and spread it to others, and those people are i:ncluded. It's basically a measure of excess cases based on trends for the areas that contributed the most participants to the rally.

Lots of people are complaining that there was no study of increase of cases from protests, and that's fair because I haven't seen too many. However, it's important to note that those events have different contexts - Sturgis had lots of indoor venues including bars, which is a notorious vector for transmission and very little masking was observed. It also appears to have produced a noticeable spike in cases. BLM protests, on the other hand, was outdoors and many, many protests wore masks. There also doesn't really seem to be an substantial increase in cases where the largest protests occurred (in fact, many of those areas have the lowest per capita numbers in the US).
Exhausted
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 1768

Exhausted
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 1768

linked to Sturgis
9/9/2020 at 4:16 PM

didn't say all attended Sturgis

you catch covid-19 there and then bring it back to your home town and spread it on the way home and when you get home.

as many may not know they were exposed from someone at Sturgis like when they were on the way home.

the number is probably higher

this is one reason why USA is a hot spot.
Alvin Hansen

Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 236

Alvin Hansen
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 236

Money talks
9/9/2020 at 5:52 PM

Several people have said in this thread how foolish it was for the members of the Sturgis community to host the rally during a year when the country is besieged by a pandemic. When all was tallied, approximately 470,000 bikers made the trek from all corners of the U.S. to enjoy the sights of the Black Hills. This represented a contribution of 1.3 MILLION in vendor tax revenue to the local coffers. Assuming the rate was 7%, that represents sales of 18.5 million of t shirts, leather goods, smoked turkey legs, motorcycle accessories etc. just from the vendors set up for the week within the city. Factor in the money from camp site rentals, hotel room rentals, gas, food etc. sold by vendors in the area and in neighboring States (try to book a hotel in Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota when the rally is on) and you will appreciate the scope that the Sturgis Rally extends. Furthermore, COVID 19 is not like the bubonic plague. The media is guilty of sensationalizing the impact that it has had. Yes, it is highly contagious, but for the most part, not lethal. Unless people have severe underlying medical issues, they are ill (many not even requiring hospitalization) and they recover.

Having a plethora of information about the virus can be a bad thing. Every day experts pose new theories regarding possible means of transmission (like flushing a toilet with the seat up) that only serve to increase paranoia. It certainly doesn't help when our own resident expert tells people to have sex with masks on and that this could drag on for years. If there were ever a reason to say goodbye to life, her optimism about the situation would certainly motivate people to do something unfortunate.
JustASoul
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 356

JustASoul
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 356

Not Fake but misleading
9/9/2020 at 11:44 PM

It is true that one prediction model states that Sturgis exposure may eventually be linked to 260 000 cases. However writing that it may be linked to 260 000 new cases (as the article does) or saying it IS linked to 260 000 so far (as the OP did) is misleading, inflammatory and a great example of the sensationalizing that is seen as news these days.

Edited by JustASoul, 2020-09-09 23:45:16
Simonwalcal
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 841

Simonwalcal
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 841

................
9/10/2020 at 12:34 AM

Alvin Hansen said "Several people have said in this thread how foolish it was for the members of the Sturgis community to host the rally during a year when the country is besieged by a pandemic. When all was tallied, approximately 470,000 bikers made the trek from all corners of the U.S. to enjoy the sights of the Black Hills. This represented a contribution of 1.3 MILLION in vendor tax revenue to the local coffers. Assuming the rate was 7%, that represents sales of 18.5 million of t shirts, leather goods, smoked turkey legs, motorcycle accessories etc. just from the vendors set up for the week within the city. Factor in the money from camp site rentals, hotel room rentals, gas, food etc. sold by vendors in the area and in neighboring States (try to book a hotel in Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota when the rally is on) and you will appreciate the scope that the Sturgis Rally extends. Furthermore, COVID 19 is not like the bubonic plague. The media is guilty of sensationalizing the impact that it has had. Yes, it is highly contagious, but for the most part, not lethal. Unless people have severe underlying medical issues, they are ill (many not even requiring hospitalization) and they recover.

Having a plethora of information about the virus can be a bad thing. Every day experts pose new theories regarding possible means of transmission (like flushing a toilet with the seat up) that only serve to increase paranoia. It certainly doesn't help when our own resident expert tells people to have sex with masks on and that this could drag on for years. If there were ever a reason to say goodbye to life, her optimism about the situation would certainly motivate people to do something unfortunate. "
1.) The same economic arguments can be said for Coachella, South by South West and any number of annual summer gatherings held worldwide.
I suspect a big reason why this went through is politics. No nation has politicized COVID quite as the US has, which is unfortunate since its both going to keep them in the hot zone longer AND going to affect populations that are most vulnerable in this situation. Front line workers.

2.) COVID may not be the WORST disease ever, but it can be deadly to anyone. Never have I been more apprehensive to simply go shopping (let alone work all day with the public!) when one wrong interaction could have me infect one of the vulnerable in my orbit.

Yet even these people don't get it. Inviting people into the house unmasked that have been running all over town—going for coffee daily. . .

3.) Knowledge is power amid a pandemic, as is updating procedures as new information is gained.

This is a time of emergency. The fact that the long term nature of this situation is a downer is . . . life!
Things are not going to be the same for a long time. Okay . . . then it's time to find other ways to fill in the time!

So far this year (in between working), I've been working on a novel, and I've also started experimenting with drawing and painting.

Our resident doctor is telling us to have sex with masks on because it's obvious that such things are going to happen anyway. Same with the amusing glory hole news of earlier this year. Do it, but be responsible.

Lets . . . not be rediculous.

Edited by Simonwalcal, 2020-09-10 00:35:55
Gussins
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 380

Gussins
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 380

You
9/10/2020 at 12:52 AM

Alvin Hansen said "Several people have said in this thread how foolish it was for the members of the Sturgis community to host the rally during a year when the country is besieged by a pandemic. When all was tallied, approximately 470,000 bikers made the trek from all corners of the U.S. to enjoy the sights of the Black Hills. This represented a contribution of 1.3 MILLION in vendor tax revenue to the local coffers. Assuming the rate was 7%, that represents sales of 18.5 million of t shirts, leather goods, smoked turkey legs, motorcycle accessories etc. just from the vendors set up for the week within the city. Factor in the money from camp site rentals, hotel room rentals, gas, food etc. sold by vendors in the area and in neighboring States (try to book a hotel in Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota when the rally is on) and you will appreciate the scope that the Sturgis Rally extends. Furthermore, COVID 19 is not like the bubonic plague. The media is guilty of sensationalizing the impact that it has had. Yes, it is highly contagious, but for the most part, not lethal. Unless people have severe underlying medical issues, they are ill (many not even requiring hospitalization) and they recover.

Having a plethora of information about the virus can be a bad thing. Every day experts pose new theories regarding possible means of transmission (like flushing a toilet with the seat up) that only serve to increase paranoia. It certainly doesn't help when our own resident expert tells people to have sex with masks on and that this could drag on for years. If there were ever a reason to say goodbye to life, her optimism about the situation would certainly motivate people to do something unfortunate. "
seem to enjoy researching information. Please educate yourself, even just a little on the virus, the long-term effects, the international stats, anything. We have all put in the time and while we may not agree on many things, we at least are past the "it's just a flu" attitude.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/

There is a huge difference between sensationalism and information. If it seems the media is talking about this way too much as though it were a big news story, it is because it is. If it seems the media is putting a heavy emphasis on wearing masks, social distancing, personal hygiene, etc., that's because it's important. If even one innocent person dies as a result of a large mass of uneducated, selfish, narcissists refusing to heed the warnings of public health officials and lack of any form of societal contract then it is a huge travesty. What if that life was your mother? Spouse? Child? Would it be worth the smoked turkey legs then?

The one thing I will agree on is that this virus is not the same as the Bubonic plague. There is one key aspect that makes it much, much worse.

Edited by Gussins, 2020-09-10 01:17:11
Kimmie34
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 284

Kimmie34
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 284

message from the governor of South Dakota
9/10/2020 at 11:09 AM
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Covid
9/10/2020 at 12:00 PM

JRL said "I agree that a statistical estimate on the numbers is just that... an estimate. However the number of recorded cases may also be influenced by various factors. For someone to count as a case they need to 1. Show symptoms 2. Feel it is necessary to report their illness or see a doctor 3. Have a doctor or be able to afford one 4. Not be worried about being put in isolation for two weeks and losing their job 5. Admit they were at Sturgis as part of the public health contract tracing if they are somewhere that's even trying to trace exposure 6. Have their case recorded and publicly linked to Sturgis. Sounds like its just as difficult as a statistical model.

I am worried about the divide that this highlights in our society. We should be worried about the spread, whether it was 250 or 250000 linked cases, not trying to decide which number is 'fake'. "
Thank you for a level-headed post and a focus on what ultimately matters. When someone is trumpeting the tired yet still dangerous false talking points re “your government is just trying to show how they can control you,” “just a flu,” “the media is just trying to control you with their fake facts,” etc etc there do need to regularly be folks there to point out off-base they are even if it can sound like a broken record at times.
At the same time the online world needs more who are willing to rise above the petty fights and direct focus to what’s really important during these times of change when folks are particularly vulnerable to being told what they want to hear.
The virus spreads easily. When the virus spreads uncontrolled it has the ability to have catastrophic effects on a region and its health system as has been demonstrated. Here's hoping that that is not the result of Sturgis and that public health measures in place in regions around that particular country are able to best avoid a worst-case outcome as cases potentially seed cases potentially seed cases (potentially seed cases...).
Sportsdude
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 61

Sportsdude
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 61

total BS
9/10/2020 at 4:29 PM

If you believe this then there’s a problem. Willing to bet my life this is about as far from the truth as it gets.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Sturgis
10/20/2020 at 5:37 AM

Outbreak continues this month in the US Upper Midwest including Dakotas.
The whole link below is a valuable read for anyone that had been involved in this thread, but from the link:
“The surge was especially pronounced in North and South Dakota, where cases and hospitalization rates continued their juggernaut rise into October. Experts say they will never be able to determine how many of those cases originated at the 10-day rally, given the failure of state and local health officials to identify and monitor attendees returning home, or to trace chains of transmission after people got sick. Some, however, believe the nearly 500,000-person gathering played a role in the outbreak now consuming the Upper Midwest.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/17/sturgis-rally-spread/
don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

Thoughts
10/20/2020 at 6:53 AM

With us closing in on Rememberance Day once again, something keeps crossing my mind, and it is something that we should remember.
Freedom is not free, it always comes with a cost.
This is something that has been obvious from the beginning of the outbreak but not really emphasize.
Maybe it’s just me, the science has been there but not really focused on by specifically going after the main difference between this pathogen and others.
Oh well, that’s a completely different story.
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5043

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5043

this
10/20/2020 at 11:59 AM

don brown said "With us closing in on Rememberance Day once again, something keeps crossing my mind, and it is something that we should remember.
Freedom is not free, it always comes with a cost.
This is something that has been obvious from the beginning of the outbreak but not really emphasize.
Maybe it’s just me, the science has been there but not really focused on by specifically going after the main difference between this pathogen and others.
Oh well, that’s a completely different story. "
"Freedom is not free, it always comes with a cost. "

Amen to that.