Discussions

Federal Election Timing

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Harper
8/19/2021 at 10:55 AM

Trevor B said "how did Harper win multiple times? He was Prime Minister from 2006 till 2015. Him and the Conservatives got booted because the country got fedup with them. Harper has still been in power longer than Trudeau has.

All of this boo-hoo the west gets neglected is nothing more than crying. The biggest problem the west has is that we refuse to get with the times and that's the key part of conservatism. I think the west needs to join the 21st century and adapt in many areas.

Ontario is the most populous province in Canada at 13 million, followed by Quebec with 8 million. Alberta has 4 million, Saskatchwan has 1.1 million, Manitoba 1.2 million. Combined the prairie provinces have only 6.3 million residents. Which is less than Quebec and Ontario. Even British Columbia at 4.6 million would only be 10.9 million west of Ontario. Ontario still has more people alone let alone the 21 million if you combine Ontario and Quebec. So why should Ontario and Quebec have to bow to the will of us in the west? They have more seats in Parliament because they have most of the population of Canada, 21 million of the 38 million in total.

In the US, the Electoral College give more power to certain states as well. So those states tend to get more attention than the others and others get neglected. "
I just wanted to point out that Harper won for a few reasons that, in a sense, justify the West's frustration at the representation issue.

Harper won for two basic, fundamental reasons at different times:

- the collapse of Liberal support in Ontario (and Quebec, but to a lesser degree) following the Martin government, in which many Liberal seats in Ontario were lost to the Conservatives:

- the Orange Crush of 2011 where Quebec voted overwhelmingly for the NDP (eating into BQ and Lib support mostly). Ontario also returned higher-than-normal ridings that election, again eating into the Liberal base.

In both those cases, it was still Ontario and Quebec that decided the election - it just happened to be more in line with what the West typically votes, so it was seen as a favourable result mostly here.

It's also of note that point out that representation has always been an issue in Canada. In Manitoba, during the early and middle part of the 20th century, there were huge cries for reform at the provincial level because the majority of the population was still in rural areas. Winnipeg didn't feel as though those people should decide the fate of Winnipeg, as their concerns would naturally be different than those of rural areas.

The issue was somehow resolved, although off the top of my head I don't recall precise how or how it fits into our current system. I would have to go digging to refresh my memory. It might have simple resolved itself with the explosive growth of urban life in the latter part of the 20th century.
Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

.
8/19/2021 at 11:06 AM

Abbysmum said "A small correction to your assertion that Wexit hasn't been talked about lately. The Maverick Party is the rebranding of Wexit, and they have been in the news as they intend to field a fairly substantial slate of candidates in Western Canada.

The coverage hasn't been positive or negative, just reporting along with their establishment as a party and their getting ready for the election. "
I don’t think that many people truly consider the maverick party to have any credibility or serious election success. It’s just another tin pot extremist party led by a bitter has been politician that will waste the votes and time of a few supporters . Soon it will disappear into the distant past and remain there forgotten where it belongs.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Leadership
8/19/2021 at 4:12 PM

Farmergeorge said "Please come back Mr Harper. Your country needs you. "
Party is smarter than that.

If OP’s intent in making this post is seemingly to try to speak to the kind of left-leaning moderate voters that the Conservatives desperately need to win this election (granted prob not in this riding), Harper runs opposite of that. With public statements lately aligning himself further with the far right in the USA and the extra level of partisanship that’s dug in South of 49 over the last five years, as much as he’ll further entrench himself with some folks who are already automatic Conservative voters he’ll highly likely be more divisive than he was six years ago and I bet lose a federal election by even more. For a lot of voters like myself that might otherwise consider the Conservative party equally, am closely watching for any signs of letting that USA far-right way of thinking in and simply couldn’t support a party or leadership who fan those flames. Admittedly I haven’t read every story, every piece of platform documentation or gone through many Tweets, but so far I think O’Toole has done okay in this way… eg pushing back at the irrational climate change denier segment of the party. How he'd govern with at least seemingly some of those elements within the party is something I'll be paying extra attention to. In the big picture in this riding it probably doesn’t matter what I decide, but there are ridings that swing the election (or majority) one way or another where that’s going to make all the difference because I think Canada at its core doesn't in large enough numbers want to be like that.

Not that there’s anything wrong with having a party you identify with, but for anyone that claims themselves to be a true neutral I always like this test:
- name one sincere good thing the present Liberal fed gov has done
- name one sincere mistake the present Liberal fed gov has made
- name one sincere good thing the present PC provincial gov has done
- name one sincere mistake the present PC provincial gov has made
(Left NDP out since thought best to focus on presently governing parties. Feel free to substitute Federal Conservatives for provincial… the campaign is so young that I don’t really know enough to do this for them yet)

For example:
-Canada now leads nations with population 20M and over in full vaccination rate. I give the Federal gov much credit for overseeing the logistical and communication challenges around this happening and feel it has us well-positioned as we prepare to face Delta compared to so many other countries. I however disagreed with the Federal gov seemingly overlooking Manitoba earlier this summer and encouraging levels of interactions in Canada that officials in this province had not deemed us ready for since we were behind other provinces in recovery from the third wave.
-I appreciated when the present PC provincial gov established a regional economic development office specific to identifying opportunities in Westman. I’ve been disappointed with how they’ve handled the education system during the pandemic where they’ve refused to provide parents the level of flexibility and choice offered in other provinces.

Since all parties/leaders will do some things we agree with and make mistakes, a true neutral won’t have a hard time answering all of the above with sincerity (ie not sarcasm or back-handed compliment and not piling on excessively on one versus the other) since there’s no fear of hurting any party’s vote and no fear of helping another party’s vote.
Trevor B

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Trevor B
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

The problem
8/19/2021 at 5:08 PM

O'Toole and the Conservatives have now is to either try to gain the more liberal minded in Ontario and Quebec or keep those conservatives who will want to vote for the PPC or Maverick parties. If he leans more to the liberal side, he will loose those further to the right that prefer the trump republican way of things. The Conservatives just don't have to battle the Liberals, but also the PPC and the Maverick. While those 2 don't have a chance of winning, but they will take votes away from the Conservatives. If O'Toole says anything is support of a mask or vaccine mandate he will loose support.

Ontario has been dealing with Doug Ford and they are getting tired of him. So are they going to vote for someone to be PM who is like Doug Ford?
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Credibility
8/19/2021 at 5:47 PM

Farmergeorge said "I don’t think that many people truly consider the maverick party to have any credibility or serious election success. It’s just another tin pot extremist party led by a bitter has been politician that will waste the votes and time of a few supporters . Soon it will disappear into the distant past and remain there forgotten where it belongs. "
I agree that they don't have a lot of credibility with most people, but like the PPC they get a fair amount of attention. Will it translate into votes? That remains to be seen.

The dynamics described in Adam's and Trevor's posts above will be interesting come election day. O'Toole is definately setting himself up as more moderate than Sheer in hopes of attracting the centrist and moderate left voters. I follow a few hard-core medium-to-far right folks in Twitter and they're spitting mad. These are the same folks that helped push Sheer into leadership. They feel seriously betrayed, so I'm curious if they're going to stay conservative or migrate to the PPC or Maverick.
Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

.
8/19/2021 at 6:40 PM

Adam said "
Party is smarter than that.

If OP’s intent in making this post is seemingly to try to speak to the kind of left-leaning moderate voters that the Conservatives desperately need to win this election (granted prob not in this riding), Harper runs opposite of that. With public statements lately aligning himself further with the far right in the USA and the extra level of partisanship that’s dug in South of 49 over the last five years, as much as he’ll further entrench himself with some folks who are already automatic Conservative voters he’ll highly likely be more divisive than he was six years ago and I bet lose a federal election by even more. For a lot of voters like myself that might otherwise consider the Conservative party equally, am closely watching for any signs of letting that USA far-right way of thinking in and simply couldn’t support a party or leadership who fan those flames. Admittedly I haven’t read every story, every piece of platform documentation or gone through many Tweets, but so far I think O’Toole has done okay in this way… eg pushing back at the irrational climate change denier segment of the party. How he'd govern with at least seemingly some of those elements within the party is something I'll be paying extra attention to. In the big picture in this riding it probably doesn’t matter what I decide, but there are ridings that swing the election (or majority) one way or another where that’s going to make all the difference because I think Canada at its core doesn't in large enough numbers want to be like that.

Not that there’s anything wrong with having a party you identify with, but for anyone that claims themselves to be a true neutral I always like this test:
- name one sincere good thing the present Liberal fed gov has done
- name one sincere mistake the present Liberal fed gov has made
- name one sincere good thing the present PC provincial gov has done
- name one sincere mistake the present PC provincial gov has made
(Left NDP out since thought best to focus on presently governing parties. Feel free to substitute Federal Conservatives for provincial… the campaign is so young that I don’t really know enough to do this for them yet)

For example:
-Canada now leads nations with population 20M and over in full vaccination rate. I give the Federal gov much credit for overseeing the logistical and communication challenges around this happening and feel it has us well-positioned as we prepare to face Delta compared to so many other countries. I however disagreed with the Federal gov seemingly overlooking Manitoba earlier this summer and encouraging levels of interactions in Canada that officials in this province had not deemed us ready for since we were behind other provinces in recovery from the third wave.
-I appreciated when the present PC provincial gov established a regional economic development office specific to identifying opportunities in Westman. I’ve been disappointed with how they’ve handled the education system during the pandemic where they’ve refused to provide parents the level of flexibility and choice offered in other provinces.

Since all parties/leaders will do some things we agree with and make mistakes, a true neutral won’t have a hard time answering all of the above with sincerity (ie not sarcasm or back-handed compliment and not piling on excessively on one versus the other) since there’s no fear of hurting any party’s vote and no fear of helping another party’s vote.
"
I think that Stephen Harper is smarter than that, I doubt that he would want to return to power. The things that he knew how to do was operate a calculator, balance a budget and wield power successfully while getting things done. Was he somewhat arrogant and overbearing? Yes he was, traits often found in successful leaders of any political leaning.
You are right , there is little that current government could have done differently or better during this difficult covid 19 pandemic. Exceptions to this are a failure to act swiftly enough and impose meaningful movement and travel restrictions early on as the situation around the world became very clear. Many leaders made these same mistakes.
Don’t forget that Canada’s financial position was already dire before covid 19 hit. Excessive government borrowing and spending left us with no reserve to tackle such a disaster as the pandemic that has fallen upon us. We are now heavily in debt and it may take generations to pay this off. This was poor financial planning on the part of the present government and they still have not learned.
Trevor B

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Trevor B
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Many conservatives
8/19/2021 at 6:43 PM

Abbysmum said "I agree that they don't have a lot of credibility with most people, but like the PPC they get a fair amount of attention. Will it translate into votes? That remains to be seen.

The dynamics described in Adam's and Trevor's posts above will be interesting come election day. O'Toole is definately setting himself up as more moderate than Sheer in hopes of attracting the centrist and moderate left voters. I follow a few hard-core medium-to-far right folks in Twitter and they're spitting mad. These are the same folks that helped push Sheer into leadership. They feel seriously betrayed, so I'm curious if they're going to stay conservative or migrate to the PPC or Maverick. "
already don't think O'Toole is right wing enough. Early on O'Toole was trying Trump Republican tactics. But don't think it worked well for him. Many of his tweets were a failure. Then after Jan. 6 at the US Capitol, he backed away. He even made a statement that he and the Conservative party is not Trump like. That made it even worse for him as those on the far right called him out and called him essentially a Liberal.

Truthfully I think the Conservative Party has an identity problem. They are torn in all directions. Do they move more right to get those who favour the Trump style of government or do they move to the left to get more of where the country is?
Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

.
8/19/2021 at 8:09 PM

Trevor B said "already don't think O'Toole is right wing enough. Early on O'Toole was trying Trump Republican tactics. But don't think it worked well for him. Many of his tweets were a failure. Then after Jan. 6 at the US Capitol, he backed away. He even made a statement that he and the Conservative party is not Trump like. That made it even worse for him as those on the far right called him out and called him essentially a Liberal.

Truthfully I think the Conservative Party has an identity problem. They are torn in all directions. Do they move more right to get those who favour the Trump style of government or do they move to the left to get more of where the country is? "
Don’t make parts of the electorate feel alienated and they won’t sympathize with or support extremist views from either direction.
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Impossible task
8/19/2021 at 8:33 PM

Farmergeorge said "Don’t make parts of the electorate feel alienated and they won’t sympathize with or support extremist views from either direction. "
I think for the CPC that's an impossible task. They have such a broad range under the "conservative" umbrella that they will alienate someone, whether it be the social conservatives, the trumpian conservatives, the moderate conservatives, the red conservatives etc.

All of Canada's other political parties more or less clump to the left. But since "uniting the right", it's been an uphill battle for the CPC in finding their identity. They catered to the socons with Sheer, but that ultimately proven disastrous. O'Toole is essentially a moderate, but they're going to lose people at either extreme. The socons especially are a vocal bunch (and they seem to overlap with trumpians).
Trevor B

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Trevor B
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

A good discussion
8/19/2021 at 10:08 PM

Abbysmum said "I think for the CPC that's an impossible task. They have such a broad range under the "conservative" umbrella that they will alienate someone, whether it be the social conservatives, the trumpian conservatives, the moderate conservatives, the red conservatives etc.

All of Canada's other political parties more or less clump to the left. But since "uniting the right", it's been an uphill battle for the CPC in finding their identity. They catered to the socons with Sheer, but that ultimately proven disastrous. O'Toole is essentially a moderate, but they're going to lose people at either extreme. The socons especially are a vocal bunch (and they seem to overlap with trumpians). "
about social conservatism in Canada.

https://youtu.be/hSrXQI000Bg

I find social conservatism far more strict in views than social views by liberals. Conservatism is always looking to the past while liberals look to the future. I see that in many of my family and friends, they always want to go back to how things used to be years back. This i:ncludes technology, social norms, science among other things. In other words they are resistant to change. Conservatives also tend to be far more religious and adhere to it more strictly. Religion tends to be more conservative to begin with. And in many ways religion drives social views of conservatives. Like in sex-ex, abortion, LGBQT issues.

Liberals are more open to change. We welcome new technology, social norms and science with open arms.

Think social issues are the biggest difference between conservatives and liberals and causes the most headbutting.

Edited by Trevor B, 2021-08-19 22:15:27
Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

You are both wrong
8/19/2021 at 11:45 PM

Conservatism can and does easily encompass more people from across the political spectrum under it’s umbrella and draws support from a more diverse group while typically delivering greater economic and social stability and stronger periods of growth.
Fiscal responsibility is the foundation of a sustainable economy which Has been sadly lacking in Canada in recent years placing our country and it’s people in great peril. You can’t spend your way out of debt and that seems to be the expectation of late. It won’t work. We have to face the challenges, face reality, formulate a plan to pay down debt, balance budgets and grow the economy in a sustainable manner.
Trevor

Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2126

Trevor
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2126

…
8/19/2021 at 11:58 PM

For every vote the CPC would lose to the PPC and Maverick Party, they’ll gain at least two from the Libs.
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

History lesson
8/20/2021 at 8:51 AM

Farmergeorge said "Conservatism can and does easily encompass more people from across the political spectrum under it’s umbrella and draws support from a more diverse group while typically delivering greater economic and social stability and stronger periods of growth.
Fiscal responsibility is the foundation of a sustainable economy which Has been sadly lacking in Canada in recent years placing our country and it’s people in great peril. You can’t spend your way out of debt and that seems to be the expectation of late. It won’t work. We have to face the challenges, face reality, formulate a plan to pay down debt, balance budgets and grow the economy in a sustainable manner. "
I think you're making a lot of assumptions and generalizations that has proven to be untrue even in fairly recent history.

IDK when you moved to Canada (I know you've talked about coming from the UK), but by the 1990s Canada waa in dire financial straits, having only balanced the budget twice since the mid-70s. Most of the 80s had been spent under the Progressive Conservatives and the Mulroney government, who introduced such goodies as the GST. It was under the Liberal Chretien government, specifically with Paul Martin as finance minister, that balanced the budget and by the early 00 eliminated the debt. This was during a recession too..

I remember the 90s. The federal public service was decimated (I had several family members employed there, as it was a major employer in Winnipeg back then), and when I started at CRA in 1999 it has just begun getting built back. Staff morale was very low then.

Eventually, Teflon Jean retired and the sponsorship scandal happened, and by 2005 the newly united Conservative (bringing the PCs and Reform parties under one umbrella) under Harper were elected. But the Liberals took our credit rating from aa1 to AAA leading up to this, which helped us whether the 2008 recession along with Harper's smart economic policies.
Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

Farmergeorge
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 1837

.
8/20/2021 at 10:02 AM

Abbysmum said "I think you're making a lot of assumptions and generalizations that has proven to be untrue even in fairly recent history.

IDK when you moved to Canada (I know you've talked about coming from the UK), but by the 1990s Canada waa in dire financial straits, having only balanced the budget twice since the mid-70s. Most of the 80s had been spent under the Progressive Conservatives and the Mulroney government, who introduced such goodies as the GST. It was under the Liberal Chretien government, specifically with Paul Martin as finance minister, that balanced the budget and by the early 00 eliminated the debt. This was during a recession too..

I remember the 90s. The federal public service was decimated (I had several family members employed there, as it was a major employer in Winnipeg back then), and when I started at CRA in 1999 it has just begun getting built back. Staff morale was very low then.

Eventually, Teflon Jean retired and the sponsorship scandal happened, and by 2005 the newly united Conservative (bringing the PCs and Reform parties under one umbrella) under Harper were elected. But the Liberals took our credit rating from aa1 to AAA leading up to this, which helped us whether the 2008 recession along with Harper's smart economic policies. "
Well I have never seen a non conservative government exercise much financial discretion or prudence yet in the two countries in which I have lived.
In my experience it has always fallen upon a conservative government to make the unpopular decisions, to introduce the tough measures, to make the required spending adjustments and to get finances under control .
Trevor B

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Trevor B
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Jock McBile
8/20/2021 at 10:10 AM

Explains the national debt the best. Of course this isn't the most recent.

https://youtu.be/CBMnvXrdPmA