Discussions

Just to speak further to the Brandon case count.  
At an increase in the Brandon case number shown of three it represents the lowest number in eight days (since August 18) based on my tracking the numbers shown on a day-to-day basis.

At the same time the total test volume Province-wide is also the lowest number since that same day, though they have not been sharing test volume per region at this time.  From the media releases since that time, these are the daily reported test counts for Manitoba (again not Prairie Mountain specifically):  
 
Aug 18: 1028  
Aug 19: 1376  
Aug 20: 1596  
Aug 21: 2331  
Aug 22: 1849  
Aug 23: 1839  
Aug 24: 1544  
Aug 25: 1428  
Aug 26: 1206

Also on the data end and looking at the increase in Brandon cases shown on the stats page..
-The past five days add up to 42 new cases
-The five days previous to that added up to 60 new cases

The Province is reporting 22 new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba on Thursday, nine of which are reported as in the Prairie Mountain Health region. Data by district from the Province shows a number of Brandon cases eight higher than yesterday.  
   
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the increases by age group in Prairie Mountain:  
50-59: 2 female  
40-49: 1 female  
30-39: 1 female  
10-19: 4 female, 1 male  
 
Prairie Mountain shows as having 212 active cases, 160 recoveries and 1 death since the beginning of the pandemic. Brandon is showing an active case count of 126 active cases, six higher than yesterday. Brandon is showing as having had 111 recoveries.  
 
Via today’s provincial bulletin, the following information was shared about Rideau Care Home as noted above:  
 
“Preliminary investigations indicate that a case previously identified in the Prairie Mountain Health region is a health care worker from the Rideau Park Personal Care Home in Brandon. The individual wore personal protective equipment and is self-isolating. Close contacts have been identified and the case investigation is continuing.  
 
This information has been shared with the families, staff and close contacts. While no other cases have been identified as linked to this case and the risk is assessed to be low, in an abundance of caution, the site has initiated outbreak protocols”  
 
The most recent 5-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is reported to be 3.0%.  
   
Today’s full Provincial bulletin is at:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49117

A few more locally relevant pieces of info gleaned...  
 
- Note from today's media release that new public health order will require 14-day self-isolation if one has tested positive for COVID-19 or if have been exposed to COVID-19 by a close contact.  Notification will come from public health as to if required. 
 
- Cases associated with Maple Leaf were said at media conference to be 75 in employees, 41 of which being active.  
 
- Just looking back at the past three days on age breakdown by Prairie Mountain Health... a period where based on my math on daily numbers published by the province 19 of 27 cases appear to have been Brandon...  
 
Under 40: 21 cases  
40 and over: 6 cases  
 
Or breaking down further based on my math on those daily numbers...  
 
0-9: 0 cases  
10-19: 12 cases  
20-29: 5 cases  
30-39: 4 cases  
40-49: 3 cases  
50-59: 2 cases  
60-69: 1 case

The Province is reporting 55 new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba on Saturday, 31 of which are reported as in the Prairie Mountain Health region. Data by district from the Province shows a number of Brandon cases 23 higher than yesterday.  
   
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the increases by age group in Prairie Mountain:  
 
50-59: 1 female, 3 male  
40-49: 2 female, 2 male  
30-39: 2 female, 1 male  
20-29: 3 female, 2 male  
10-19: 2 female, 7 male  
0-9: 1 female, 4 male  
 
Note that the above totals to 30 cases versus the 31 number recorded for the PMH region. The total increase in active cases plus recoveries also equals 30. The reason for the discrepancy is unclear.  
 
Prairie Mountain shows as having 235 active cases, 185 recoveries and 1 death since the beginning of the pandemic. Brandon is showing an active case count of 151 active cases, 17 higher than yesterday. Brandon is showing as having had 120 recoveries.  
 
From today’s Provincial media release at the link below, there has been a case at another Brandon care home.  
 
From the release:  
“Preliminary investigations indicate a case previously identified in the Prairie Mountain Health region is a health care worker from the Hillcrest Place personal care home in Brandon. The individual wore personal protective equipment and is self-isolating. Close contacts have been identified and the case investigation is continuing.  
 
This information has been shared with families, staff and close contacts. While the risk is assessed to be low, the site has initiated outbreak protocols in an abundance of caution. This means the site is putting additional measures in place to further reduce the risk to residents and staff, and is restricting visitation at the facility. The site is moving to Critical (red) on the #RestartMB Pandemic Response System.”  
 
The most recent 5-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is reported to be 2.6%.  
   
Today’s full Provincial bulletin is at:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49139

Those reading over the past few days will have noted that I've been following a trend in cases in young people this week.  
 
The data below comes from taking the case counts reported by the Province for Prairie Mountain Health by age group and comparing that value to values reported for the same on subsequent days. Going back to Tuesday, the split over the last five days is:  
 
Age 0-9: 6  
Age 10-19: 27  
Age 20-29: 17  
Age 30-39: 9  
Age 40-49: 8  
Age 50-59: 7  
Age 60-69: 1  
 
Under 40: 59  
40 and over: 16  
 
Looking wider than that, the graph below makes use of daily data reported by the Province  for case age breakdown going back to August 7. Using it you can see the curve for various age groups in Prairie Mountain over that slice of time...

The #COVID19 pandemic has challenged the Brandon, Manitoba community, but keeping our people safe remains JOB #1 for our Maple Leaf plant in @CityBrandon. Take a look inside our plant. #BdnMn pic.twitter.com/9RUblJPyMy

— Maple Leaf Foods (@MapleLeafFoods) August 26, 2020

For a little more perspective of the outbreak in Brandon and our 160 active cases versus the rest of Canada, below are active case counts reported as for last night by respective regions for cities from the Pacific through Ontario. Data by city isn’t reported in every case with it sometimes being by region. In every case the city or region is at minimum double Brandon’s population, in vast majority of cases the city is exponentially bigger than us:  
 
Calgary: 435 active cases  
Edmonton: 544 active cases  
Vancouver coastal health: 461  
Vancouver Island (Victoria, Nanaimo): 14  
BC interior (Kelowna, Penticton, Kamloops, etc): 17  
Toronto public health: 296  
Peel (Mississauga and Toronto area): 295  
Ottawa: 195  
Regina: 1  
Saskatoon: 10  
Winnipeg: 138  
 
Canada as a whole based on yesterday’s data is reporting 5159 active cases as a sum across all provinces. Brandon amounts to about 1 out of every 32 active cases in all of Canada with our population being less than 1 out of 750 of Canada’s.  
 
This next number is not directly reported by the province but I have calculated on an ongoing basis based on the reported daily case counts that they do publish for Brandon…. the seven day rolling average of new cases for Brandon on each day beginning August 19. I don’t fully warrant its 100% accuracy since its possible that the odd case from day to day may have been re-allocated by the province but the picture at the very least will be very close. 
 
Aug 19: 10.43  
Aug 20: 11.29  
Aug 21: 9.71  
Aug 22: 11.14  
Aug 23: 11.86  
Aug 24: 9.71  
Aug 25: 10.71  
Aug 26: 9.29  
Aug 27: 8.0  
Aug 28: 8.71  
Aug 29: 10.14  
Aug 30: 10.43  

The Province is reporting 28 new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba on Monday, of which 13 are reported as in the Prairie Mountain Health region. Data by district from the Province shows a number of Brandon cases 12 higher than yesterday.  
   
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the increases by age group in Prairie Mountain. Note that these tally up to 16, greater than the 13 new cases reported for Prairie Mountain. The reason for the discrepancy is not clear.  
 
80-89: 1 male  
70-79: 1 female  
50-59: 2 female, 1 male  
40-49: 1 female  
30-39: 1 female, 2 male  
10-19: 4 female, 3 male  
 
Prairie Mountain shows as having 250 active cases, 198 recoveries and 1 death since the beginning of the pandemic. This also tallies up to a value of overall cases 16 higher than yesterday in Prairie Mountain, reason for discrepancy from the 13 unclear.  
 
Brandon itself is showing an active case count of 168 active cases, eight higher than yesterday. Brandon is showing as having had 127 recoveries.  
 
We are starting to get more detailed information on amount of cases of presumed community transfer. Today’s release says that 16 Prairie Mountain cases are showing as source unknown over the past week. If we take the reference to “week” literally, PMH has had an increase in cases of 103 in the data over the past seven days including today.  Over that same period 77 cases have been Brandon specifically going by the increase.
 
The most recent 5-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is reported to be 2.1%.  
 
Today’s media release has the following sections that are particularly Prairie Mountain-relevant. Please see link for full release:  
 
“Public health officials are advising of a possible exposure at the Frederickson Performance Centre, Unit F-1212 18th St. in Brandon on Aug. 17 from 7 to 8:30 a.m. and Aug. 23 from 9 to 10:30 a.m. While the risk of transmission is considered low, information is being provided to help people assess their risk and seek testing if symptoms appear.   
Case investigations indicate that of the three cases identified at the Assiniboine Centre at the Brandon Regional Health Centre, two of the individuals were health-care workers and one is a patient. At this time, it appears the patient contracted the virus at the facility.   
 
In addition, case investigations indicate a case previously identified in the Prairie Mountain Health region is a health-care worker who works at Fairview Personal Care Home in Brandon. The health-care worker is a close contact of a previously identified case. This information has been shared with families and staff. Close contacts are being identified and the case investigations are continuing.   
 
While the current risks are assessed to be low, the site has initiated outbreak protocols at the facility in an abundance of caution as per provincial protocols. This means the site is putting additional measures in place at the facility to reduce further the risk to residents and staff, and is restricting visitation. The Fairview Personal Care Home is moving to Critical (red) on the #RestartMB Pandemic Response System.”  
 
Today’s full Provincial bulletin is at:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?item=49157

Today, we can confirm that two additional City of #BdnMb employees have recently tested positive for #COVID19.
With the health &: safety of our employees our top priority, we wish them both a safe &: speedy recovery.
You can find our full statement at https://t.co/ClAWG51ikI

&mdash: City of Brandon (@CityBrandon) September 1, 2020

The Province is reporting 18 new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba on Tuesday, of which seven are reported as in the Prairie Mountain Health region. Data by district from the Province shows a number of Brandon cases five higher than yesterday.  
   
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the increases by age group in Prairie Mountain:  
80-89: 2 female  
50-59: 1 male  
40-49: 1 female  
30-39: 1 male  
20-29: 1 female  
0-9: 1 male  
 
Prairie Mountain shows as having 246 active cases, 209 recoveries and 1 death since the beginning of the pandemic. Brandon itself is showing an active case count of 165 active cases, a reduction of three from yesterday. Brandon is showing as having had 135 recoveries, an increase of eight from yesterday.  
 
The Prairie Mountain new case total represents the lowest amount in 11 days. The Brandon new case total represents the lowest amount in six days.  
 
Today’s data shows that there are seven current hospitalizations in Prairie Mountain, up from four yesterday.  
 
In today’s media release (link below), the Province says that preliminary investigations show that two of Prairie Mountain’s cases today are in Assiniboine Centre. The total cases in the facility are now three patients and two health-care workers.  
 
The most recent 5-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is reported to be 2.2%.  
 
Today’s full Provincial bulletin is at:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49161

The Province is reporting 13 new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba on Wednesday, of which eight are reported as in the Prairie Mountain Health region. Data by district from the Province shows a number of Brandon cases two higher than yesterday.  
   
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the increases by age group in Prairie Mountain:  
60-69: 1 female  
50-59: reduction of 1 female  
40-49: 1 female, 1 male  
30-39: 1 female  
10-19: 2 female, 1 male  
0-9: 1 female  
 
Prairie Mountain shows as having 249 active cases, 213 recoveries and 1 death since the beginning of the pandemic. Brandon itself is showing an active case count of 163 active cases, a reduction of two from yesterday. Brandon is showing as having had 139 recoveries, an increase of four from yesterday.  
 
When combined with yesterday’s total of five, Brandon’s two-day total of seven is the lowest since the Province began sharing Brandon numbers in mid-August. Based on my calculations over daily case counts released by the Province, the seven day average for Brandon is 10.43 cases/day, pro-rated by population amounts to 19.12 cases/100k population over those seven days.  
 
Today’s data shows that there are eight current hospitalizations in Prairie Mountain, an increase of one from yesterday.  
 
The most recent 5-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is reported to be 1.8%.  
 
Today’s full Provincial bulletin is at:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49164

The Province is reporting 20 new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba on Thursday, of which six are reported as in the Prairie Mountain Health region. Data by district from the Province shows a number of Brandon cases six higher than yesterday.  
   
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the increases by age group in Prairie Mountain:  
50-59: 1 male  
40-49: 1 male  
30-39: 3 female  
10-19: 1 female  
 
Prairie Mountain shows as having 247 active cases, 221 recoveries and 1 death since the beginning of the pandemic. Brandon itself is showing an active case count of 164 active cases, one higher than yesterday. Brandon is showing as having had 144 recoveries, an increase of five from yesterday.  
 
Based on calculations performed on daily released case counts, the seven day average for Brandon is 10.14 cases/day. Pro-rated by population amounts to 18.59 cases/100k population.  
 
Numbers were given for case counts associated with local care facilities:  
Rideau: 1 staff member  
Assiniboine Centre: 2 staff members, 5 residents  
Hillcrest: 2 staff members  
Fairview: 2 staff members  
 
Today’s data shows that there are eight current hospitalizations in Prairie Mountain, the same number reported yesterday.  
 
The most recent 5-day test positivity rate in Manitoba is reported to be 1.3%.  
 
Today’s full Provincial bulletin is at:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49178

The Province has issued Friday's COVID-19 bulletin at:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49182

A local perspective on data released alongside that update:  
 
BRANDON:  
Total cases: 309 (+1 vs yesterday)  
Active cases: 155 (-9)  
Recoveries: 154 (+10)  
7-day new case average calculates as: 8.71 (-2.43)*  
 
PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION  
Total cases: 469 (increase of 1 from yesterday)  
Active: 236 (-11)  
Recoveries: 233 (+12)  
Current Hospitalizations: 7 (-1)  
7-day new case average calculates as: 17.29(-5.0)*  
 
Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the case increases by age group in PMH:  
Age 20-29: +1 female  
 
In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting nine new cases of COVID-19 and a five-day test positivity rate of 1.4%.

*Calculations independently performed based on daily case data released by the province

The Province has issued Saturday’s COVID-19 bulletin at:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49184

A local perspective on data released alongside that update:

BRANDON:
Total cases: 313 (+4 vs yesterday)
Active cases: 155 (same)
Recoveries: 158 (+4)
7-day new case average calculates as: 6 (-2.71)*

PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION
Total cases: 473 (+4 from yesterday)
Active: 233 (-3) 
Recoveries: 240 (+7)
Current Hospitalizations: 8 (+1)
7-day new case average calculates as: 9.29(-8.0)*

Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the case increases by age group in PMH:
80-89: 1 female
30-39: 1 female
10-19: 1 male
0-9: 1 male

In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting 21 new cases of COVID-19 and a five-day test positivity rate of 1.4%.

*Calculations independently performed based on daily case data released by the province. This value should be seen as a best calculation on that data but not an official calculation released by the Province of Manitoba.

The Province has issued Sunday's COVID-19 bulletin at:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49185

A local perspective on data released alongside that update:

BRANDON:

Total cases: 314 (+1 vs yesterday)

Active cases: 145 (-10)

Recoveries: 169 (+11)

7-day new case average calculates as: 4.43 (-1.57)*

PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION

Total cases: 476 (+3 from yesterday)

Active: 221 (-12) 

Recoveries: 255 (+15)

Current Hospitalizations: 7 (-1)

7-day new case average calculates as: 6.29(-3.0)*

Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the case increases by age group in PMH:

90-99: 1 female

70-79: 1 female

30-39: 1 female

In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting 29 new cases of COVID-19 and a five-day test positivity rate of 1.2%.

*Calculations independently performed based on daily case data released by the province. This value should be seen as a best calculation on that data but not an official calculation released by the Province of Manitoba.

That definitely puts the province-wide number into perspective.  
The chart below plots Brandon itself on the same stat for the past nearly three weeks based on my calcs on the daily case counts that the province has released... keeping in mind that smaller the region the more any given cluster can disproportionately effect averages.  
 
Brandon is at a 7 day average per million of 81.2 based on yesterday's data. It was as high as 217.5 last month and until mid-late last week continued to hover around 200.  
 
Prairie Mountain on the same metric is at 38 per million on a 7 day average based on yesterday's data. Based on my calcs on the data PMH was as high as 267 last month with the same note about population/sample size applying there too especially re focused testing on communal living communities elsewhere in the region.  
 
The graph below shows Brandon. It's encouraging to see that curve bend the other way over these past few days, here's hoping it continues!

The Province has issued Monday's COVID-19 bulletin at:
?https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49187?

A local perspective on data released alongside that update:

BRANDON:
Total cases: 319 (+5 vs yesterday)
Active cases: 143 (-2)
Recoveries: 176 (+7)
7-day new case average calculates as: 3.43 (-1.0)* 

PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION
Total cases: 482 (+6 vs yesterday)
Active: 218 (-3) 
Recoveries: 264 (+9)
Current Hospitalizations: 7 (same)
7-day new case average calculates as: 4.86(-1.44)*

Compared to yesterday’s data, these are the case increases by age group in PMH:
90-99: 1 female, 1 male
60-69: 1 male
40-49: 1 female
30-39: 1 female
10-19: 1 female

In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting 15 new cases of COVID-19 and a five-day test positivity rate of 1.3%.

*Calculations independently performed based on daily case data released by the province

The Province has issued Tuesday's COVID-19 bulletin at:?
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49188

A local perspective on data released alongside that update:

BRANDON:
Total cases: 319 (no change)
Active cases: 140 (-3)
Recoveries: 179 (+3)
7-day new case average calculates as: 2.71 (-0.72)*

PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION
Total cases: 482 (no change)
Active: 214 (-4) 
Recoveries: 268 (+4)
Current Hospitalizations: 7 (same)
7-day new case average calculates as: 3.86(-1.0)*

In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting 11 new cases of COVID-19 and a five-day test positivity rate of 1.3%.

*Calculations independently performed based on daily case data released by the province

The Province has issued Wednesday’s COVID-19 bulletin at:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=49191

A local perspective on data released alongside that update:

BRANDON:

Total cases: 319 (no change)

Active cases: 137 (-3)

Recoveries: 182 (+3)

7-day new case average calculates as: 2.43 (-0.28)*

PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN HEALTH REGION

Total cases: 482 (+1)

Active: 212 (-2) 

Recoveries: 271 (+3)

Current Hospitalizations: 7 (same)

7-day new case average calculates as: 3.00(-0.86)*

In Manitoba as a whole, the province is reporting 16 new cases of COVID-19 and a five-day test positivity rate of 1.3%.

Note that via the Provincial bulletin at the link above, the Keystone Centre testing site will close after September 12. The Town Centre remains as Brandon's testing site. 

*Calculations independently performed based on daily case data released by the province

Have separately attached my own graph showing total case count for Prairie Mountain Health (blue) and Brandon district (in green) going back to August 12. Data is based on daily case count numbers released by the province.