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From the link, with the rapid onset of the fast-spreading Omicron variant and the holiday season beginning next weekend Quebec announced Thursday new restrictions seemingly carefully chosen to cut back on contacts and strike a balance that allows as much of a functioning society as possible over the weeks ahead:  
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-tightens-covid-measures-omicron-1.6288120  
 
From the link, changes in Quebec include:  
"-Stores will have reduced capacity, allowing one client per 20 square metres.  
-Places of worship will reduce capacity by 50 per cent, with a cap of 250 people. Vaccine passports will be required and people must be seated.  
-Funerals and weddings can have up to 25 people without requiring vaccine passports, but up to 250 people with passports.  
-For public activities, capacity is lowered by 50 per cent to a maximum of 250 people. People must stay seated and wear a mask at all times.  
-Bars and restaurants must cut capacity by 50 per cent, spacing tables as much as possible, with a maximum of 10 people at tables. Dancing and karaoke are banned once again.  
-Cinemas and theatres will also have capacity reduced by 50 per cent.  
-All tournaments and competitions suspended as of Monday, with reduced capacity of gyms and other indoor training facilities.  "
 
In Manitoba, earlier in the week at a press conference citing the expectation for exponential case growth the Province has gone with the softer messaging of asking that people reconsider their holiday gathering plans and stressed the importance of vaccines and getting a third shot when eligible:  
 
Just looking through the news section of the Provincial website and up to now other than the regular boilerplate bulletins I don’t see any policy announcement relating to COVID for all of December other than a very targeted announcement relating to a vaccination requirement in the legislature.  
 
Even though serious Public Health Orders remain in place and vaccination efforts remain ongoing, one can’t help but notice the stark difference so far in both policy and communication from previous COVID waves. That includes where we were a leader of sort among provinces late last summer in introducing targeted measures to re-iterate increased importance in the habits that reduce the impact of increased spread. There had previously been a habit of making an Public Health Order announcement right around when things were getting more serious that had the effect of demanding that people pay an extra level of attention to doing what we have to do to get ahead of what’s coming our way. Sometimes that announcement was something as simple as reducing allowed gathering sizes, which on top of any direct impact on limiting spread would have the effect of generating the kinds of headlines and discussion that focus folks on what’s ahead.  
 
Given that:  
-Manitoba’s ICU numbers have been at dangerous levels as we deal with the most recent wave, running at close to 100% capacity daily  
-the daily Manitoba new case count in yesterday’s data reached its highest since June and Brandon its highest active case count since May  
-a complacency and a sort of COVID fatigue has crept in in recent weeks in at least a percentage of the population  
-we’re a week away from the biggest gathering season of the year  
 
Even though I think that most folks who got as far as clicking on and reading this post this far know what we have to do, I personally hope we see Manitoba find additional ways very soon in policy and messaging to further drive the point home of just how important of a juncture we appear to be at in this pandemic and what needs to be done to limit the kinds of contacts that can make this worse than it has to be.

A large percentage definitely dont, but its pretty clear that a meaningful enough percent at least need that reminder to pull up their socks in order to reduce contacts in a way that could make a difference. Quebec knows it. Nova Scotia knows it. Sounds like Ontario knows it too.

Quite the contrast to see the sacrifice the Montreal Canadiens (no fans in the building next game) and Toronto Maple Leafs/Ottawa Senators/Toronto Raptors (50% capacity) are now having to make while our Jets release a statement that they intend to continue to play with no capacity restrictions. An example of how there needs to be regulation from the top to ensure that the right thing is done. 

And now BC with the following restrictions though January:  

-limiting indoor, personal gatherings, including in rental and vacation properties to the household/residents plus 10 individuals, or one additional household maximum if all are aged 12 and older are fully vaccinated;  
 
-requiring the BC Vaccine Card for organized events of all sizes and ensuring the QR code is scanned at events;  
 
-seating requirements and restricting movement between tables at food and liquor-serving premises, and reinforcing the need to wear masks when not seated;  
 
-limiting venues of 1,000 individuals or more to 50% of the seated capacity with reinforced masking requirements and scanning of the BC Vaccine Card QR code;  
 
-pausing all sports tournaments while the order is in effect; and  
all New Year’s Eve organized gatherings and events will be restricted to being seated-only events, with no mingling or dancing allowed.  
 
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021HLTH0230-002414 

Quebec leading the way again with measures to curb spread, including closing schools until Jan 17 and closing restaurant dining rooms:  
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-news-conference-new-year-public-health-measures-1.6300455  
 
Dr Roussin was grilled about Manitoba plans for schools at yesterdays media conference on the basis that some would like more notice if Manitoba has to do something similar beyond the Jan 10 date schools are currently to have students back. On asked multiple times, The Dr held firm to that discussions are ongoing, no decisions made, we have to be ready to pivot if the situation justifies.

CBC’s Kives trying to get at what may or may not be a difference between what recommendations are being made to gov in this province as far as measures and what are being accepted and acted on. Question in the clip below is being asked of the CEO of Shared Health:  

That is how you end a press conference! @bkives at his best! #questionhasbeenanswered pic.twitter.com/smy7lgouf8

— Travis P (@TravPederson) December 30, 2021

Sounds like Ontario is probably going to two weeks remote to start school.

BREAKING: @ongov to announce (imminently) schools will go online for the next 2 weeks. As bitter a pill for some who will struggle mightily during this time, this will afford some needed time to upgrade safety measures, defuse the surge of Omicron.

— Abdu Sharkawy (@SharkawyMD) January 3, 2022

Hopefully we learn soon what those conversations are looking like at the Manitoba end. This province was especially resistant to remote last year compared to a lot of other provinces, but remains to be seen what holds through leadership change.

For us personally, we're beginning to consider what plan B looks like if case numbers are either still rising or there isn't an established multi-day trend that things are headed in the right direction and the plan continues to be to have students in class in a week. It sounds like they're waiting it out as long as they can to make a decision, but hopefully there's some sensitivity soon to the fact that people will need notice.  If state of COVID in a week (or really by Friday's case numbers since no numbers over the weekend) is anything like it is now, just wont feel right sending. 

Really informative interview in the embed below with Medical Director of Critical Care of a Toronto hospital. Ontario, but I think might as well be Manitoba for most of the (sometimes tough) questions and answers that address the challenges and uncertainty around what's been developing:  

The Ford government cabinet is meeting to discuss increased public health restrictions in Ontario as COVID-19 cases spike@DrMWarner says "I hope whatever Cabinet decides will give us a chance"

I ask him what he means #onpoli #topoli https://t.co/wOaD5ouahZ pic.twitter.com/CHLmHAa1Rl

— Natasha Fatah (@NatashaFatah) January 3, 2022

With Ontario new modelling suggesting that Omicron will overwhelm their health care system, that province did in fact announce serious new measures today. Their premier saying "Our public health experts tell us we could see hundreds of thousands of cases every day," ..... "If we don't do everything possible to get this variant under control, the results could be catastrophic. It is a risk I cannot take."  
 
Ontario new measures into effect starting Wednesday include  
- closing restaurants to indoor dining, closing gyms  
- moving schools to remote learning until *at least* January 17 (they were to initially start in class on Wednesday)  
-gathering limits to 5 indoors, 10 outdoors  
-retail stores and malls to 50% capacity  
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-public-health-measures-jan-3-1.6302531  
 
Question becomes, how much of that same risk Ontario's experts have identified do models and Public Health experts see as present or developing in Manitoba and how much of that risk is our leadership willing to take? At the very least there should IMO be transparency with what our models are showing so people better understand the decisions that are being made and any risk being accepted 

I found this link very interesting.  
 
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=2349896&fbclid=IwAR3WQkeg7ko1oiRRW3Y6bEjDGjjFdcjVuvPgRQumOAkg5jaPGSAZYYm3vIk

Everyone's looking for reasons to see best-possible outcome, but important especially right now to make sure info is current. Video is undated but interview appears to be more than a week old based on headlines on the ticker... which in Omicron time is an eternity it seems. Daily cases in Ontario have more than doubled in the last week, hospitalization and ICU numbers have been on the rise since that time and outbreaks in health care institutions have been on the rise. Given new models that have seriously changed their own Premier's medically-advised tune toward the new measures that Ontario is having to introduce this week I would love to see an interview with questions in current context.

Today's Ontario announcement is at the link below, where you'll note emphasis on acceleration of "getting booster doses into arms" as part of their strategy in this next phase:
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1001394/ontario-temporarily-moving-to-modified-step-two-of-the-roadmap-to-reopen 

Closer to home, from the Provincial release at https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=53100:

"Manitobans are encouraged to get their second and third doses as quickly as possible. While COVID-19 vaccine appointments continue to be available at regional or provincial vaccine clinics, for many people the fastest way to be immunized is at a nearby medical clinic, pharmacy or urban Indigenous clinic. Check the online vaccine finder or a medical clinic or pharmacy near you that provides the COVID-19 vaccine to find the next available opportunity to be immunized. The timeline between second and third doses and eligibility criteria information can be found at https://manitoba.ca/covid19/vaccine/eligibility-criteria.html.

Many Manitoba vaccine sites as well as pharmacies and clinics are offering walk-in and appointment-based vaccination for COVID and seasonal flu. Eligible individuals can book their appointments online, by calling (toll-free) 1-844-626-8222 (1-844-MAN-VACC) or by contacting their local pharmacy or medical clinic directly. Visit www.gov.mb.ca/covid19/vaccine/finder.html for some of the available options."

Reported responsibly with current info, within current context that's open and honest about what the unknowns still are and what the risks are with different approaches.  
 
Have to be very cautious with the "mild" narrative based on what's being observed in England and Ontario and keep in mind wider impact within a community versus impact on any one person individually. These aren't the numbers for any specific variant, but hypothetically speaking to illustrate a point...  
 
-If one variant infects 1,000 people and it's severe enough that 5% of them require hospitalization after being sick for a period of time you have 50 people needing hospitalization.  
 
-If another variant infects 10,000 people and results in 0.5% of them requiring hospitalization after being sick for a period of time you also have 50 people needing hospitalization.  

With so many Omicron infections still being quite young, there appear to be a lot of unknowns but over the past week Ontario has seen a rise in hospitalizations and ICU. Manitoba simply can't afford risking putting increased strain on hospitals and ICUs, including potential increase in infections of staff at those hospitals. This is why the importance of vaccines and updated public health measures are being stressed and why many believe there may be justification to follow Ontario and Quebec's lead in Manitoba very soon.  
 
If folks are looking for a reason to be hopeful that if we follow public health guidance we can get to the other side of this wave without worst-case scenario, that's great.  
 
If there's cherry picking of points (some current and some out-dated) and ignoring others to justify not following public health advice on vaccination and restrictions, that's another thing altogether and could contribute to making this a lot worse than it needs to be before it gets better.

No speculation. There are some that are confidently writing off Omicron as “milder. ” Illustrating how a virus that’s tagged as “milder” in terms of average impact on any given person can have a very serious impact on a wider medical system with a fraction of the hospitalization rate if it spreads a lot more easily.  
 
We don’t know how serious that impact will be, but the increasing body of info and examples that are avail to us are pointing more and more toward the chance of this becoming something serious. 

Certainly not at a point (publicly that’s been disclosed at least?) where we can throw some numbers into a calculator, see how many extra hospitalizations we will have and know whether or not it will break our medical system however one defines break. For that, folks with access to more data, current info and medical expertise than you or I look at models for different scenarios, consider what’s likely, what’s realistically possible, what they’re willing to take chances with, what requires further measures to reduce risk and then decisions-makers make calls based on that info.  If deemed necessary there are absolutely more tools in the toolbox to reduce contacts, knowing that more contacts means faster spread and more cases at any given point in time. 
 
Ontario obviously has models and at least a realistic scenario where their current track could lead to “catastrophic” results… and this in a province that until the weekend had been beating the drum pretty solidly on balancing economy vs virus, on students in class vs remote. Don’t have to be an expert to see that what they announced Monday significantly cuts back on contacts that they’ll have for the next couple weeks that hopefully slows spread enough to blunt whatever impact they’re seeing as possible.  
 
In Manitoba our people have been saying that conversations are ongoing and that we need to be ready to pivot, so it’s def not as if they aren’t watching closely within whatever the dynamic is between public health officials and the politicians that take in their advice and make decisions. We will have our own models. I think we agree that it’s time for, just like during the Spring wave, the public to be given a more transparent look at what those models are showing. If there are uncertainties around the delay in testing let's see what the scenarios could be.  From there we can understand the path we might be on and, if it’s the case, why we would be different from what Ontario is looking at when we’ve been reminded for weeks that our medical system was already pushing its limits before this latest wave even hit not just in terms of demand for beds but demand for staffing.  
 
I would hope that even the most optimistic person with an interest in knowing more about the realties of what we’re facing is at least a little concerned and curious what Ontario officials are seeing that ours might not be. Hope is that ours arent taking different risks on our behalf in the name mainly of a couple weeks of less disrupted business and school.

embedding a Tweet that was shared today by CBC's Kives from an NYC ER doc who shares observations on how the surge is affecting them and compares/contrasts to the initial 2020 wave. Highly recommend clicking and reading the whole string for anyone interested in an honest, front lines look at what this particular variant is looking to be capable of and what it isnt:  

Just leaving the ER.

It was a long day. And a stunning amount of Covid.

Today I worked in an area that was temporarily converted into a makeshift ICU during the first COVID wave.

Here’s what different from then.

And also what challenges we’re facing with this surge in NYC: uD83EuDDF5

— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) January 4, 2022

 
 
The thing that really stands out and that have started to see in a few other places is the idea that in terms of ICU level of severity they aren't seeing a spike, but in cases that are bad enough to require hospitalization it's really taking off to the point where their numbers are the worst in more than a year and a half and still climbing.  
 
I want things to get better as much as the next person and I know we'll see the other side of this, but when you see me posting in these threads with this kind of passion its because I see a real incongruence in this community in many between what people are very confident we're facing and what it's entirely possible we could be facing. The "let it rip" crowd who have come to an opinion that this is their ticket to normal and the folks that are stuck on "milder", most if not all of which I'm sure have good intentions, really need to start asking themselves what Manitoba looks like if we have a similar rise in hospitalizations when our system is already taxed. No matter how many people repeat the same thing to each other on social media and whip up through group think, it doesn't change what it's looking more and more like is possible with too much complacency. 

Cool. Math minor here with heavy emphasis on stats, so no slouch either.  I will have spent more time writing this post than I have learning medicine in my life time, so don't hesitate to keep that in mind tho :)
 
All of the noise on assumptions and your definition of fact aside, look at the graph in this tweet below from the same NYC ER doc mentioned above. What does Manitoba look like if Omicron drives an outsized surge in hospitalizations anything like that? Whether or not we can say that will be our exact experience (definite differences between us and there to go with similarities), are we yet taking it seriously enough to guard against what at minimum has to be a realistic possibility?  

But still so many needed hospitalization.

Right now NYC has over 5,000 Covid hospitalizations.

More than last winter’s peak.

Higher than any point since May 2020.

3 times higher than only two weeks ago.

And still climbing higher everyday. pic.twitter.com/xZyKIpwCKT

&mdash: Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) January 4, 2022