Appreciate that a lot of folks check out and find value in these threads as a central spot to share info during weather warnings. Respectfully ask that we avoid getting into battles about sources so that threads can be focused on first hand accounts of weather from posters along with sharing info from other sources that give those scrolling the thread new info to assess what’s taking shape.
One source I always also like to look to is the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre. Pasting below the section from their morning update that speaks to how they see things taking shape. From it I’d take that accumulation info and what particular areas could see the worst are still up in the air (groan-worthy pun or not, your choice :) )If anyone else comes across models or forecasts please feel free to share, but where possible please make note of when that info was posted. For example something posted yesterday morning might not be as relevant now when you’re talking about an evolving system:
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From 7am at http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html ....
[i]
EASTERN PRAIRIES...A BROAD AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTH OF THE
PRAIRIE WARM FRONT, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS IN ONTARIO. THIS SNOW WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH TO A NEW JET STREAK LIFTING NORTHWARDS OUT OF MONTANA. THIS WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. BY 00Z, SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING NEAR THE SK/MB BORDER AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN HEADING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO EASE SLIGHTLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT THEN WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS THE
COLORADO LOW LIFTS NORTHWARDS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. ANOTHER
BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTHWARDS ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MANITOBA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 10 TO 30 CENTIMETRE RANGE, HOWEVER LOCALIZED REGIONS COULD SEE EVENT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACH 40 TO 50 CENTIMETRES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, A SWATH OF WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KM/H WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MANITOBA INTERLAKE, SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA, AND SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THESE MODERATE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HEAVY SNOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.
THIS IS STILL A DYNAMIC AND EVOLVING SYSTEM. WARNING LOCATIONS AND TYPES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS VARIOUS ASPECTS OF THIS STORM TAKE SHAPE. THE PASPC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WINTER STORM AND WILL UPDATE ALERTS AND FORECASTS AS NEEDED.
LASTLY, WHEREVER IN SK/MB WHERE SNOW IS NOT FALLING, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, CAPPING INVERSION, AND STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR [FREEZING] DRIZZLE AND FOG [/i]
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