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Assiniboine River Flood of 2020

Assiniboine River Flood of 2020

Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
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Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Assiniboine River Flood of 2020
7/2/2020 at 12:33 AM

As of 5pm Canada Day evening the City of Brandon reports that the Assiniboine River at 1st street measured 1173 ft above sea level, meaning that the river is now at flood stage.

This thread will be used as a central place within eBrandon to share ongoing factual updates from official sources (Province of Manitoba, City of Brandon) as well as reputable media as the river is at a state of flooding. I also will post information that I’ve factually verified myself should it be relevant.

This thread should not be seen as as substitute from staying tuned direct to the above sources for the most current information. When a link is posted, I strongly advise clicking through to make sure you’re as informed as possible. Please feel free to post updates that you come across yourself so long as they are from verifiable sources such as the above.

For member discussion of events in the community its asked that one please make use of existing threads or start a new one if a topic that you believe should be discussed is currently not.

Thanks for your co-operation in helping this thread play a constructive part in making sure that we’re as informed as possible.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
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Adam
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Posts: 15663

Wednesday evening City notice
7/2/2020 at 12:34 AM

In light of this week’s historic rainfall, the province currently forecasts a peak of 1174 to 1177 feet some time between July 5th and 8th. As a point of reference, the dike system is built to withstand levels at 1184 feet, seven feet higher than the upper limit of the currently forecast peak range.

The City of Brandon announced on Wednesday evening that the gap in the dike system at 18th Street North and Grand Valley Road was in the process of being filled.

At the same time it was announced that evacuation preparation orders were issued to a low-lying section of Brandon between 1st Street North and 26th Street North, from Stickney Avenue north to Galbraith Crescent. These are not an order to evacuate, but notice to be prepared to evacuate on short notice should it be necessary.

For more details please read:
https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5936https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5936
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Wednesday sunset
7/2/2020 at 12:34 AM

The Assiniboine River has seen a meaningful rise over the past 24-48 hours to the point where it is outside of its banks in low lying areas inside the dike system. I captured the interactive panorama a little before 10pm on Wednesday night to give folks an idea of the present state of the river:
Adam

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Adam
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Posts: 15663

Gallery
7/2/2020 at 10:23 AM

Put together a handful of pics in a gallery showing where the river and dike were were at this morning...
https://ebrandon.ca/buzzpost.aspx?buzz_id=827
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Webcam
7/2/2020 at 11:03 AM

Also just a reminder that you can see a live shot from atop the hill at 18th Street any time using the live eBrandon webcam situated at Grand Valley Church. It should give a half decent idea of where progress on the dike is at and it looks like the river is now becoming pretty visible itself. The image is updated once per minute and posted on the weather page at https://www.ebrandon.ca/weather.aspx or you can view a larger version of the same image any time at https://www.ebrandon.ca/weather_camimage.aspx
Adam

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Adam
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Rivers
7/2/2020 at 11:45 AM

At the link below, the Provincial media release from last night regarding the potential for structural failure at the Rivers dam. The Little Saskatchewan river downstream from the dam of course eventually meets the Assiniboine River West of Brandon. Effected residents downstream are to be notified via their municipalities to have destinations in mind if a precautionary evacuation is deemed necessary... hence the evacuation preparation notice distributed to Brandon residents in low-lying areas yesterday:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=48548
Adam

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Adam
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River level
7/2/2020 at 11:56 AM

Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre report has 18th Street at 1.68 feet higher than yesterday:
https://gov.mb.ca/mit/floodinfo/floodoutlook/forecast_centre/morning_condition_reports/2020/20200702-Assiniboine%20River.pdf

Note that the readings they show on this sheet daily are at 18th as opposed to the 1st St readings that the City has been sharing. 1177.19ft at 18th is more than 11 feet below the dike elevation at 18th of 1188.25 that is indicated on the sheet at the link above.
Adam

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Adam
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Dinsdale
7/2/2020 at 1:32 PM

A late addition to the gallery... taken within about the last half hour. Dont imagine it will be long before driving into Dinsdale is a non-starter:
Adam

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Adam
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Rivers
7/2/2020 at 2:40 PM

More information on Rivers and the strain the system there is under at the link below. Infrastructure Minister is calling this a 1 in 1000 year flood event...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/riverdale-manitoba-flooding-rivers-dam-1.5634928
Adam

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Adam
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City update
7/2/2020 at 3:18 PM

Update from the City of Brandon this afternoon at the link below.
I'll summarize links before posting, but please read full link to be as informed as possible.

- filling of the gap in the 18th/Grand Valley dike is complete
- level at 1st street at noon measured 1174.5 ft. Forecast peak calls for levels as high as 1177 ft
- city has closed access to Queen Elizabeth and Dinsdale Parks as a public safety measure. Barricades in place.
- the potential for flash flooding in the Assiniboine River Valley, in particular relating to the Little Saskatchewan River and concerns around the Rivers dam, is being monitored

Full link, please read:
https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5937
Mr. Smith
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 104

Mr. Smith
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 104

Dike Height
7/2/2020 at 3:54 PM

As per an update on the City of Brandon website:

"The Emergency Response Control Group wishes to provide an important clarification today: the City of Brandon’s earthen dike system has a confirmed elevation of 1,186 feet above sea level, measured at First Street. The dike system’s elevation was inadvertently referenced at 1,184 feet above sea level at First Street in recent public notices."
Adam

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Adam
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Discovery Centre
7/2/2020 at 6:11 PM

Discovery Centre and much of the grounds are still open but as per pic some areas are now blockaded off because of river levels. In this case even if you wanted to go past the baracade it doesn’t look like you’d have much for options as far as bridge access with current levels!
Adam

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Adam
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Rivers dam
7/2/2020 at 8:20 PM

A drone shot of the dam near Rivers at Lake Wahtopanah courtesy Manitoba government....
Adam

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Adam
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Thursday night storm
7/2/2020 at 11:06 PM

Severe thunderstorm passing through the area tonight. Though Brandon did see some intimidating gusts at the front, a negligible amount of rain (unofficially less than 1mm at two separate gauges) and the strangest orange sky I think I've ever seen, Rivers, Rapid City and so much of that Little Sask basin area looked to be more directly in line.

Rivers I’m told had a good solid rain for around a half hour with one observer telling me based on eye test it didn’t seem to compare to recent rains. Second separate observer near the dam caught 1/2 inch (or a little more than 10mm) in rain gauge.

Rapid City also directly in path, one rain gauge just outside of town picking up less than 10mm. Was coming sideways and only one gauge but encouraging sign that maybe not as bad as it looked on radar as much as anything more than 0mm isn’t welcome right now.

Hoping for the best as far as official rainfall totals and any wind damage to vulnerable shallow rooted trees for all of you folks upstream.
RantsFromAfar
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 283

RantsFromAfar
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 283

****
7/3/2020 at 12:03 AM

Adam said "A drone shot of the dam near Rivers at Lake Wahtopanah courtesy Manitoba government.... "
Ughhh. The visible damage to the far shoreline just past the bottom of the spillway makes one fearful of the damage down below the water. No wonder the province is concerned.
Adam

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Adam
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July 2 vs July 3
7/3/2020 at 8:12 AM

For a visual on yesterday morning vs today, see images below. Slightly different angle and different lighting but the points of reference are there. Level readings when released will put numbers to it...
Adam

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Adam
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River
7/3/2020 at 10:51 AM

Pics above seemed to speak to this.... Province reports a rise of just 0.07 feet or a little less than an inch this morning compared to yesterday morning at 18th Street:
https://gov.mb.ca/mit/floodinfo/floodoutlook/forecast_centre/morning_condition_reports/2020/20200703-Assiniboine%20River.pdf
Adam

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Adam
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Rivers
7/3/2020 at 1:16 PM

Via Sun story below, the level at Rivers has dropped slightly but there continues to be concern over the dam structure.

On a question about what would happen to Brandon in the event of a failure, infrastructure minister Ron Schuler said "At this moment, we do not view there being any significant issue"

also saying:

"It’s not that we feel the structure is going to collapse imminently. Hardly. It’s just that we don’t have confidence in the structure as it stands and out of an abundance of caution we are suggesting that people evacuate."

The full story is at:
https://www.brandonsun.com/local/water-level-lower-but-threat-remains-571611702.html
Adam

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Adam
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River level
7/3/2020 at 2:19 PM

... and the City in its river level data feed, a drop of approx 2 inches to 1174.4 as of 7:48AM:
http://opengov.brandon.ca/catalog.php?dataset=riverlevel
Adam

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Adam
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Flash flooding potential
7/3/2020 at 5:42 PM

Via the City this afternoon, its said that in the event of Rivers dam failure the impact of flash-flooding at Brandon would be comparable to Flood of 2011 levels (below the height of the dike). They still urge residents in low-lying areas to be prepared to evacuate in the event there is flash flooding:
Our team continues to monitor the potential for flash flooding in the Assiniboine River Valley should the Rivers Dam fail. In such an event, worst-case peak levels in #BdnMb would be similar to those seen in the spring of 2011 - which would be below top of our dike system. (2/3)
— City of Brandon (@CityBrandon) July 3, 2020
Adam

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Adam
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Updates
7/3/2020 at 5:44 PM

Update from the Province on the high water situation in Southwest and Western Manitoba:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=48553

and update from City of Brandon on what is said to be a likely peak of the Assiniboine at the moment:
https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5938
Adam

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Adam
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Test emergency alert
7/3/2020 at 10:24 PM

See note below via the Sun of a test emergency alert that had been causing quite a bit of added concern:
An emergency alert sent out by the province through The Weather Network at 3:29 p.m. for the RM of Cornwallis says that the Rivers dam could fail within 24 hours. However, we have confirmed with a provincial spokesperson that the alert was a test message — dam's status unchanged.
— The Brandon Sun (@thebrandonsun) July 3, 2020
Adam

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Adam
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Levels
7/4/2020 at 1:56 PM

From City Brandon river level readings, the Assiniboine was down another about 10 inches just after 9am compared to the last reading at 1st Street:
http://opengov.brandon.ca/catalog.php?dataset=riverlevel

Via Sun story below, levels at the lake at Rivers and the Little Sask continue to drop even after this morning’s storm:
https://www.brandonsun.com/local/Water-levels-continue-to-fall-despite-storm-571629241.html
Adam

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Adam
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Assiniboine
7/5/2020 at 10:57 AM

A similar bridge shot to the one taken earlier this week for a visual of how much the river is down as of a little less than an hour ago...
City river reading for the day isn't posted yet, but Province is showing 1.12 feet lower than yesterday at 18th st as of this AM.
Adam

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Adam
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Little Sask
7/5/2020 at 10:59 AM

As far as the Little Saskatchewan River, marginal differences up or down compared to yesterday. Here's what's reported as per link below:
At Horod: up 0.14ft
At Minnedosa: down 0.11ft
Above Rapid City dam: down 0.07ft
Near Rivers: down 0.05ft
https://gov.mb.ca/mit/floodinfo/

This is the most recent notice from RM of Riverdale this AM, where reservoir dam level risk continues to be high with levels continuing to lower depending on precipitation:
Adam

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Adam
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Rain
7/5/2020 at 5:44 PM

Fortunate day today on the rain front with the forecast we had... and hard to complain about that 0% chance of precip all the way through til at least supper time tomorrow:
https://weather.gc.ca/forecast/hourly/mb-52_metric_e.html

Next rain in the Env and Climate Change Canada forecast for Brandon is Tuesday night into Wednesday...
Adam

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Adam
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Assiniboine
7/6/2020 at 6:27 PM

Via the city, the river level at Brandon is now below flood stage. City continues to be on high alert as a result of water levels up stream on the Little Saskatchewan through Rivers and the dam:
https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5939
Adam

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Adam
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City
7/8/2020 at 12:31 PM

From the city this morning, Rivers and Minnedosa dams remain stable. Rivers reservoir is down 0.3 feet, Assiniboine at Brandon also continues receding. The dike fill at 18th and Grand Valley will remain in place so long as there is threat of flash flooding:
https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5943
Adam

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Adam
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Rivers
7/13/2020 at 12:17 PM

Via the Sun, Province worked
On the dam at Rivers on Saturday. Full analysis of the structure’s integrity coming this week:
https://www.brandonsun.com/local/Province-completes-tests-on-Rivers-dam-571737461.html

River level this morning in Brandon at 1st St was at 1166 feet... more than 8 feet below the peak earlier this month:
http://opengov.brandon.ca/catalog.php?dataset=riverlevel
Adam

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Adam
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Rivers dam
7/13/2020 at 8:28 PM

Via the province at the link below, on-site investigations at the site of the Rivers dam have shown no substantial damage... leading to restored confidence in the structure:
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=48578
The City has said that its flash flood preparedness plan remains in place and continues to advice those who received evacuation preparedness notices to remain prepared to evacuate should an order be given:
https://www.brandon.ca/public-notices-details?var=5946

At tonight's council meeting, the City says that it still intends to leave the plug in the dike at 18th St and Grand Valley Road "for at least a couple more weeks" until a little more comfortable.