Discussions

Any time anyone mentions the direction that the Conservatives are heading in Canada, it becomes a fight. Rather than providing substantial evidence to the contrary, all you do is disagree and and lay claims that his opinion is hurtful or misguided.  
 
The truth of the matter is that while the left unites, the right becomes more and more fractured as it tries to rebuild or even establish any sort of identity.  
 
What is really happening, is those centrist/right (like me) have turned towards the Liberals, who are the most centrist party left in Canada at the moment. Yes, I voted for both Stephen Harper AND Justin Trudeau, as I am sure a lot of other people have.  
 
By moving more and more to the right, the Conservatives have lost voters to the Liberals. And they may have the political landscape to the south to blame for this. It really wasn't until the Trump era that I have seen such hatred directed towards a particular political figure. So, yes...politics in the south DO have an impact on what happens here...the F Trudeau crowd isn't that dissimilar to the MAGA group...and only those within the fringes of the far right would disagree.  
 
Edited by PrimeConvoy, 2022-04-21 11:04:24

I fail to see how the Conservative party has moved at all to the right? O'toole's platform in the last election had basically mirrored Trudeau's with Carbon tax, Gun laws, etc. I still think that O'tooles move to the left is what lost many right-wing voters to either the PPC or just to not vote at all in the last election.  
 
IMO Trudeau has taken the liberal party further left to be more akin with the NDP, and when compared to political spectrums of the 90's could hardly be considered a central party. A classical liberal probably has more in common with the CPC than LPC.  
 
There is still a lot of time between now and 2025. I don't expect JT to call an election earlier. If anything his focus will be planning for his retirement job with the UN.

A limited understanding of how politics works in Canada. In an election The vast majority of voters will not support a party or leader with extreme leanings left or right it doesn’t matter. The majority of voters will always swing slightly left or right of centre and that is where an election is won or lost.

I think what you're referring to is how politics used to be done in the age before social media. It hasn't been this was for a couple of cycles now.  
 
The reality is that the "big tent" parties can only win elections these days if they bring the fringes in. That's why Alberta has the UPC. That's why the CPC exists. The PPC, unless they can bring them back into the fold (which PP is trying very hard to do) will cost the CPC very dearly in the near future if it hasn't already.  
 
Yes, the Liberals are most centrist, sitting somewhere centre-left. This deal with the NDP is ideal because it keeps the left in it's little camps without having the pains the CPC are currently having. The PC of old were centre-right. It has most decidedly moved more right since it's merger with the Alliance/Reform. O'Toole was a centrist leader. He was rejected for being too centrist.  
 
It's those fringes that can make or break the election. Layton was highly charismatic and even though he had a basic NDP platform, he destroyed Liberal support, all those people stepping further left. That's the main reason Harper won a majority like he did. In 2021 there were several seats that the PPC took enough votes to make the CPC lose. Not enough to win, but enough to show what's possible.

I will maintain a more optimistic viewpoint than this. I think that the majority of the Canadian electorate is smarter than you give them credit for and I believe they will reject extreme leanings towards left or right. Those parties that choose to embrace further extreme tendencies will struggle to gain significant traction in a general election and will lose support to those candidates closer to centre. Time will tell.

After the 2021 election I dove into the results to see how the PPC swayed things. Now I’m making a couple assumptions here, the main one being that every single PPC vote would’ve been a CPC vote if the PPC weren’t on the ballot. I don’t see a scenario where a PPC voter has the Libs or NDP as a second choice, but they could have chose to not voted at all. However if we assume 100% of the PPC vote goes to the CPC, the CPC would’ve won 26 more seats, 19 from the Lib, 6 from the NDP, and 1 from the BQ.

According to Wikipedia, results (seats) were: Liberal 160, Conservative 119, BQ 32, NDP 25, Green 2. Using Trevor's analysis above, the results without the PPC vote, assuming it went to Conservative 100%, would be: Liberal 141, Conservative 145, BQ 32, NDP 19, Green 2. In other words: Conservative minority.  
 
As I always say, Maxime Bernier is Justin Trudeau's best friend. No one does more to ensure Liberal governments.

The conservative party has really got off course. Politics in general really. The line has been blurred between right and wrong. Almost nothing should surprise us. The people telling us we have a "limited understanding" really should look in the mirror.....

The CPC, as I have said before, is adopting fascist ideology. Pierre is just the start.