Severe weather potential - June 29
6/28/2019 at 4:20 PM
New forecast maps issue by Environment Canada suggest the strong possibility of all modes of severe weather for a large swath of Southern Manitoba On June 29.
I have to say, we follow the forecasts pretty closely as armchair meterologists, and we don't recall seeing the red ever in Manitoba, and it's rare that the mcapes are over 5000j/kg, which is what is predicted for tomorrow. The key will be if the dew point gets high enough to break the cap.
https://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html
STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL THEN LEAD TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPES FORECAST IN THE 5000 J/KG RANGE.
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL TOP OUT AT 50+ KNOTS. THE ISSUE FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE CAPPING: THE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND 12
DEGREES, REQUIRING A COMBINATION OF ABOUT 32/23 TO BREAK THE CAP.
WHETHER THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS
THAT CAN MANAGE TO FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL OFFER GIANT HAIL AND
EXTREME WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MODERATE, AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 150-300 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. THE ULTIMATE TORNADO
THREAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP AND WHETHER
DAYTIME STORMS FORM IN THE FIRST PLACE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW
UPSCALE AFTER DARK AND MOVE OUT OF MANITOBA.