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Severe weather potential - June 29

Severe weather potential - June 29

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Severe weather potential - June 29
6/28/2019 at 4:20 PM

New forecast maps issue by Environment Canada suggest the strong possibility of all modes of severe weather for a large swath of Southern Manitoba On June 29.

I have to say, we follow the forecasts pretty closely as armchair meterologists, and we don't recall seeing the red ever in Manitoba, and it's rare that the mcapes are over 5000j/kg, which is what is predicted for tomorrow. The key will be if the dew point gets high enough to break the cap.

Here is the thunderstorm outlook for tomorrow for Manitoba. Looks very active! #mbstorm Keep alert for watches and warnings https://t.co/m6bjQANzy6 pic.twitter.com/JEJnuvFJnM
&mdash: ECCC Weather Manitoba (@ECCCWeatherMB) June 28, 2019

https://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html

STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL THEN LEAD TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPES FORECAST IN THE 5000 J/KG RANGE.
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL TOP OUT AT 50+ KNOTS. THE ISSUE FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE CAPPING: THE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND 12
DEGREES, REQUIRING A COMBINATION OF ABOUT 32/23 TO BREAK THE CAP.
WHETHER THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS
THAT CAN MANAGE TO FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL OFFER GIANT HAIL AND
EXTREME WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MODERATE, AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 150-300 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH. THE ULTIMATE TORNADO
THREAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP AND WHETHER
DAYTIME STORMS FORM IN THE FIRST PLACE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW
UPSCALE AFTER DARK AND MOVE OUT OF MANITOBA.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Saturday
6/28/2019 at 7:57 PM

Severe (potential) season is here....
Weatherlogics put this out within the last hour that talks about the most severe potential as closer to the US border... but will see how everyone sees it by Saturday morning. Up to 120 km winds, 6 cm hail!
Here is our severe weather outlook for tomorrow. The highest risk of severe thunderstorms is along the US border. This area may see two rounds of strong storms - one in the morning and another in the evening. #mbstorm #mbwx pic.twitter.com/vkFZnIhtDi
— Weatherlogics (@weatherlogics) June 29, 2019
PeopleSuk
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 76

PeopleSuk
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 76

Severe Weather
6/28/2019 at 9:25 PM

We haven't had a really severe thunderstorm for quite some time now. It's about time for a really big one Lol
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Severe storm watch
6/29/2019 at 5:08 AM

Quite the mess on radar sweeping Southern Sask and MB... watch just issued for Brandon, warnings further West. Up to nickel hail:
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7

Radar at:
https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xfw
don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

Speed of movement
6/29/2019 at 5:20 AM

Hasn’t reached us yet, but wondering about what the winds will be like with it moving so fast, dead calm right now.
Brenda...
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 179

Brenda...
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 179

just before....
6/29/2019 at 6:15 AM

just before the rain and thunder - 5:30. Beautiful sunrise, just as a Manitoba sunset.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Morning
6/29/2019 at 7:00 AM

Great shot Brenda, yours?
Turned out to more or less be a little rain storm by the time it reached Brandon. I thought the rainbow to the West about a half hour ahead of it was kinda cool tho (bit of a pic below)... normally the sort of thing I'd expect to see on the other end of a storm!

Gonna be a hot one today before some of the real potential that Abbysmum talked about in the original post of the thread.
This is the morning description from the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre's page that talks about the late afternoon/early evening potential and factors that could contribute:

"WITH MLCAPES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KTS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS BECOMING VERY SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS SITUATED OVER SRN MB/SERN SK ALLOWS THE CAPE VALUES TO GET THIS HIGH, BUT ALSO BRINGS IN A LOT OF WARM AIR ALOFT. SO MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT THAT THE CAP LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER SRN MB UNTIL THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER SERN SK LATE THIS AFTERNOON, DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MOST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER SERN SK AND THEN TRACK INTO THE MORE MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT OF WESTMAN IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE IN THIS AREA THAT THE STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF BECOMING TORNADIC. WITH SO MUCH THERMAL CAPPING IN PLACE, AND OVERTURNING COURTESY OF THE LINE TRACKING INTO WESTMAN THIS MORNING, THERE DOES REMAIN A CHANCE THAT THE CAP MIGHT BE TOO STRONG. HOWEVER, MOST CAMS HAVE CAPTURED THIS LINE REASONABLY WELL AND STILL HAVE CONVECTION FIRING UP LATER TODAY.
ALSO, WITH THIS MUCH ENERGY AND SHEAR IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO RULE ANYTHING OUT. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TS POTENTIAL WILL BE THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE. AMERICAN MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN AS HUMID AS THE CDN ONES, SO IF MODEL DEW POINTS ARE GREATER THAN REALITY LATER TODAY, THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CHANCE TO BREAK THE CAP; 12Z SOUNDING DATA WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE, OR IF ANY INTERMEDIATE BALLOONS ARE LAUNCHED."
https://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html
Brenda...
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 179

Brenda...
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 179

yes, Adam
6/29/2019 at 7:08 AM

Mine, just off my phone.

By the time I downloaded them, it had clouded over.

(Have a second pic, thought the one I posted was better)

Edited by Brenda..., 2019-06-29 07:12:36
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Later today
6/29/2019 at 10:44 AM

Another opinion via the tweet below. As far as I can tell from the map Brandon and a lot of the eBrandon usage area falls in the “area of concern”...
@UofMchasers @MBstormchasers My Miller Analysis for 7pm this evening using the NAM. Black box = area of concern at that time. Big issue is how much this area recovers from this morning's storms. The farther N the recovery, the more likely MB will see vry strg storms. #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/TyPAQapY7l
— P McCarthy (@wxdog) June 29, 2019
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

more maps
6/29/2019 at 10:55 AM

Here's more info

https://instantweather.ca/2019/06/29/NHnoBM-severe-thunderstorm-risk-today-tonight-for-large-hail-2-5cm-damaging-wind-gusts-110km-h-flooding-frequent-lightning-possibly-isolated-tornadoes/
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Severe weather potential
6/29/2019 at 12:33 PM

Starting to see a real clearing in the sky from the West... i know that was one of the factors that had been discussed as far as what kind of fuel could be contributed for anything that might develop later.

Thanks to folks that are posting updates. These threads go best when we have posters all chipping in with observations and findings. Just a small heads up re posts that involve images or screen captures from other sites. Its okay to post graphics from Environment and Climate Change Canada's site like the risk map I've included below, but if its a direct post of a screen capture from a private site it's best posted as text in your own words, a direct link or an embed of content they've already shared such as a tweet. thanks!
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

My bad
6/29/2019 at 12:49 PM

That was my bad posting that stuff. I just figured it was important info to get out there (I know I get lazy and don't always click links), but I will refrain in the future.

Reports coming in from the Portage/Southport area that there's been severe wind gusts with trees down and power out. That would be from the remains of what passed through our area earlier today.
PowerOfaMom
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 416

PowerOfaMom
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 416

forgive my ignorance
6/29/2019 at 1:44 PM

Is this storm on its way? It was it already here?
Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Abbysmum
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 5038

Excellent question
6/29/2019 at 2:06 PM

PowerOfaMom said "Is this storm on its way? It was it already here? "
That's an excellent question, and one people get confused at.

On a day like today, the ingredients are there for one or more powerful storms to develop. They haven't happened yet, but the potential is there.

It's would be like saying you have all the ingredients on hand to make a cake. You've turned the oven on, and get mixing it. If everything goes according to the recipe, you'll get a cake. But if even one thing isn't right - you forget the sugar for example - you don't really get a cake. Or you get something resembling a cake, but isn't quite what you thought it might be!

Today, the weather is trying to make a cake. The oven's on, and all the ingredients are on hand. We've just waiting to see if nature mixes them up correctly and puts it in the oven. There's a chance she'll mess up the "recipe", meaning we won't get a storm, or maybe a storm without the severity they're anticipating. But so far, there's no cake, meaning there's no storm.

We're all just hanging out in the kitchen waiting to see what happens!

Edited by Abbysmum, 2019-06-29 14:08:16
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Storm chances
6/29/2019 at 3:05 PM

adding the link to the watches/warnings page that includes the watch in place for Southwest MB as I type this:
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb
I like that explanation Abbysmum! This tweet from a few min ago gives a good perspective on the clearing skies and their possible contribution to the recipe:
As morning convection exits southern MB this afternoon, attention turns to SW MB as skies clear and hot humid conditions develop ahead of an approaching front. Severe tstorm watch issued for Westman area for potential of severe storms developing this afternoon/evening #Mbstorm pic.twitter.com/3VRI5jHvLE
— Rob's Obs (@robsobs) June 29, 2019
Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

Abbysmum :)
6/29/2019 at 4:37 PM

Abbysmum said "That's an excellent question, and one people get confused at.

On a day like today, the ingredients are there for one or more powerful storms to develop. They haven't happened yet, but the potential is there.

It's would be like saying you have all the ingredients on hand to make a cake. You've turned the oven on, and get mixing it. If everything goes according to the recipe, you'll get a cake. But if even one thing isn't right - you forget the sugar for example - you don't really get a cake. Or you get something resembling a cake, but isn't quite what you thought it might be!

Today, the weather is trying to make a cake. The oven's on, and all the ingredients are on hand. We've just waiting to see if nature mixes them up correctly and puts it in the oven. There's a chance she'll mess up the "recipe", meaning we won't get a storm, or maybe a storm without the severity they're anticipating. But so far, there's no cake, meaning there's no storm.

We're all just hanging out in the kitchen waiting to see what happens!

Edited by Abbysmum, 2019-06-29 14:08:16"
You sure do have a way with words!

I'm hoping for 'no cake', lol
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

West
6/29/2019 at 4:38 PM

Hourly ECCC forecast has Brandon in storm risk zone from 6pm hour through to 9pm hour.

Lots firing up in Sask. Radar worth watching...

Either ECCC radar:
https://www.weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xfw

Or wunderground:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nd/minot-afb/mbx/
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Storms
6/29/2019 at 5:42 PM

Not Brandon at the moment, but warnings further North including Countryfest:
Thunderstorm warning has now been issued for the Countryfest site. Organizers say that the show may be stopped in a few minutes. The crowd continues to enjoy for now! #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/tlFzELnENq
— Bill Gade / CJ Radio (@BillGadeCJ) June 29, 2019
Edge of #mbstorm is nearing the Countryfest site now. pic.twitter.com/GtPpZfxImk
— Bill Gade / CJ Radio (@BillGadeCJ) June 29, 2019

Check the warnings link for all, but others of note stretch through RMNP and Minnedosa to Rapid City. Interesting to watch the one cell further South die off around the Man Sask border before it could get to the Melita area. The night is young.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Ended
6/29/2019 at 11:13 PM

Watch has now been ended after more than nine hours. A few very brief sprinkles of rain so small that they didn't register in either rain gauge.

I think a younger storm-watching me would've been a little disappointed, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that having that extra time to spend outside with family was anything other than a gift!

Here's hoping all is well for folks up at CFest