Discussions

We're officially into the last several hours of this September heat wave. A cold front is expected to make it's way through early this evening (Monday). Whenever you have a cold front sweeping through after we've had this much heat, you have one of the ingredients that can cause severe weather.  
 
Forecast is calling for a chance of severe storms this evening, with main threat potential being heavy winds and hail. Best case scenario, it sounds like we're probably looking at some rain.  
 
A reminder with these sorts of things that they're only analyzing conditions and giving us probabilities for a wide area. Nobody is saying we will for sure get a storm in Brandon tonight, but with this already being September we're looking at one of the last chances for severe weather before the winter.  
 
In saying 'goodbye heat wave', the forecast is thankfully still calling for above normal temps for a few more days... 22 tomorrow and 25 each of the next two days.

Erwin, if you're out there it would be great to hear what you know about probabilities today and if you have access to any models that show where severe potential is highest.