The problem generally comes when one reads more into a forecast than what's intended. The ability simply isn't there to hours out be able to pinpoint exactly where and what kind of storm there might be and so they'll usually be pretty clear on chances of it effecting any given place. It's up to the person reading to look any that chance and decide if it's worth making any kind of changes... Or to simply keep an ear to the ground of anything does develop that does look imminent... Or to live their lives and adapt as the situation dictates.
The other issue you'll run into is that a lot of folks get excited when they see the word "tornado"... Generally speaking the odd outlet (not necessarily this time that I've seen) might play into that with how they word news items or postings on the forecast and give more of a sense of imminent danger than there actually is. This leads to some people taking "chance" to mean closer to "certainty."
At any rate, there are signs they know what they're talking about this afternoon. Going by what you can see right now on radar there looks to be quite a bit in the Virden area going down toward the border. As things progress definitely wouldn't be surprised if the Brandon area sees something a little closer to supper time-ish.... But nothing's certain with these kinds of things unless they go as far as to say it is. The one thing to point out is that there aren't any actual warnings out on what's to the West, so they aren't bad enough to warrant "severe" status.
That said, lightning map is showing a history of strikes to the West... Which to many is severe enough: https://weather.gc.ca/lightning/index_e.html