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Watch today's weather...

Watch today's weather...

Brenda..
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9544

Brenda..
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9544

Watch today's weather...
8/19/2017 at 7:48 AM

Environment Canada Forecasting 3-5cm Hail, 90km/h Damaging Wind Gusts & Isolated Flooding For SW Manitoba Today.

https://instantweather.ca/2017/08/19/aab88d01-environment-canada-forecasting-3-5cm-hail-90km-h-damaging-wind-gusts-isolated-flooding-for-sw-manitoba-today-mbstorm/
Getty
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 1536

Getty
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 1536

Read
8/19/2017 at 8:16 AM

Thats for Southwest manitoba, not for Brandon.

Bulk of the storm is currently in the states.

Edited by Getty, 2017-08-19 08:18:13
loeog
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 914

loeog
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 914

Ok I read it and posted it in full
8/19/2017 at 8:22 AM

Brandon - Neepawa - Carberry - Treherne.
Today..Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this morning. Risk of a
thunderstorm late this afternoon. Hazy. Wind becoming south 20 km/h
this morning then northwest 30 gusting to 50 late this afternoon.
High 32. Humidex 35. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight..Partly cloudy. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening.
Wind northwest 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming light after midnight.
Low 9.
Sunday..Sunny. Wind becoming west 30 km/h early in the afternoon.
High 25.

Killarney - Pilot Mound - Manitou.
Today..Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this morning. Risk of a
thunderstorm late this afternoon. Hazy. Wind becoming south 30 km/h
this morning. High 30. Humidex 35. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight..Clearing this evening. Risk of a thunderstorm early this
evening. Wind south 30 km/h becoming northwest 20 early this evening
then light before morning. Low 10.
Sunday..Sunny. Wind becoming northwest 20 km/h in the morning.
High 24.

Melita - Boissevain - Turtle Mountain Provincial Park
Virden - Souris
Minnedosa - Riding Mountain National Park.
Today..Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this morning. Hazy.
Wind becoming south 20 km/h this morning then northwest 30 gusting
to 50 late this afternoon. High 32. Humidex 35. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight..Clear. Wind northwest 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming light
late this evening. Low 9.
Sunday..Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud in the morning. Wind
becoming west 20 km/h late in the afternoon. High 25.

No flooding, no hail, no 90km winds listed in environment Canada website at 8:20
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Severe weather
8/19/2017 at 8:41 AM

One things for sure, its gonna be a hot one today and there's a 90% probability I'm going to be sitting square in the middle of a kiddie pool five hours from now

Depending on where you look it does look like a bit of a chance for some fireworks later in the afternoon or evening as the front moves through. Even though it looks like the chance for the worst is expected to be East of here it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

I don't imagine its ever easy for weather forecasters when you're dealing in probabilities and so many people are looking for certainty. I like to look to the Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre because they go into more detail on factors that could determine weather or not we see stuff develop. Their statement for this morning is at the link below, where they note that severe storms are possible but not guaranteed in Southern Manitoba:
http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html

Getty: There's no imminent storm at the moment. If you're looking at radar I'm pretty sure what you're seeing is some kind of noise right now and not actual precip.

Loeog: They arent usually going to go as far as forecasting specific threats within storms for specific cities this early in the day. They've said there's a chance for storms, how or if that specifically develops from here would be learned about from keeping an eye out for watches or warnings later in the day and/or doing a little radar watching later to see what's formed in the general area.

Stay cool folks!
don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

I could be wrong
8/19/2017 at 9:51 AM

Just going by how it feels and also looking at the humidity forecast,as well as the humidex, I saying it likely will be a non event. Humidity for this afternoon is 47%, and the humidex readings are not excessive for the temperature we have forecast.
Remember folks it the weather, and being wrong is the most accepted part of forecasting.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Watches
8/19/2017 at 4:36 PM

Severe storm watches issued for Eastern Manitoba but nothing for Westman based on how they see the setup today:
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb8
Forecast for Brandon does as of now note the risk for a thunderstorm of some sort early this evening though

loeog
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 914

loeog

Joined: Mar 2009

Posts: 914

Hot discussion of the day

8/19/2017 at 5:09 PM

Brenda said "Environment Canada Forecasting 3-5cm Hail, 90km/h Damaging Wind Gusts & Isolated Flooding For SW Manitoba Today.

https://instantweather.ca/2017/08/19/aab88d01-environment-canada-forecasting-3-5cm-hail-90km-h-damaging-wind-gusts-isolated-flooding-for-sw-manitoba-today-mbstorm/ "

Just an FYI to everyone, Environment Canada has not posted a weather warning for SW Manitoba at any point today.

I see this fake warning is now posted as the hot topic on the front page of this site.

Brenda posted an honest post, unfortunately it was based on an untrue webpage weather report.

Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam

Joined: Mar 2005

Posts: 15663

Weather

8/19/2017 at 5:50 PM

loeog said "

Chill. Forecast still notes a *chance* of thunderstorms in SW Manitoba this evening (granted nobody is using the word severe). For the most part thats what this thread is about and posts throughout the thread have made clear what the circumstances are as far as probability for more severe weather to the East, though nobody anywhere is warned as of now (even in the East).

Side note, that forecast for me sitting in a kiddie pool came to fruition (probably should've issued a warning at some point). Boy can that city water be cold!