Discussions

Just like when there’s a restriction I’m not sure I totally understand, when there’s a loosening I don’t totally get I try to remind myself I’m not the epidemiologist or MD and have a level of trust that they wouldn’t accept a level of risk that given what’s known about the virus they expect would cause significant problems.  
 
I do have a vision of what the skating oval looks like at peak times and every time I play it over in my head I see difficulty in people and groups being able to distance on the ice with the range of skating abilities you’ll find. I do hope that in early days especially, decision-makers are very closely watching things at these outdoor places and prepared to change on a moments notice if it doesn’t look like it’s working out (from the notice from the city it sounds like that's the plan). Waiting until cases start showing up (virus acquisition, then symptoms, then test, then result, then identifying and reacting to trend) starts to get us pretty close to the 25th. 
 
One thing I do wonder if we’re seeing factor in. On the chatter front at least, theres some undercurrent of people talking about putting the community at risk with non-compliance at Christmas (hopefully most of it’s just venting because frankly it’s concerning). Maybe before they hammer down on that by being clear on enforcement, they hope that outdoor options like this provide an outlet that amounts to the lesser of evils so long as people are using within rules??

But at the end of the day they've made clear how serious they're taking these next few weeks... I have trust that they won't be wilfully taking on a big level of risk within the whole picture of the virus response and that they're ready to pivot if needed. 

I don’t think anyone needs to feel guilty about doing something that public health officials have signed off on, so long as they’re doing it within rules (Max group size 5, distance of 2 metres from anyone not from same household). Fwiw from what I saw this afternoon, lots of people out walking and not a single instance of “taking a mile.” Here’s hoping that keeps being the case as some of these other options open up!

If some people are like us they're adjusting habits. When we came up to one park area that had too many cars, we went to another one. We also will try to adjust time of day on some of these things so that we aren't there at a time where others are most likely to be out. I don't see skating happening for us unless it's at a time where it's just about empty. Not the greatest conditions for someone still figuring out their feet (and kiddo too I suppose :)). Playgrounds were a real challenge as far as distancing in the summer and so really had to pick your spots. Thinking that winter weather will keep a cap on that, not normally a time of the year that people fall over themselves to use the play structures. 

Still seeing that line of reasoning come up once in a while, but it seems to at least partly misunderstand the problem and the response to it.  
 
I think the focus needs to be on need vs want and accumulated statistical risk and not playing games with accepting unnecessary risk and blurring the lines on the “wants.” Even in this public health emergency, if there’s an urgent problem with your teeth you *need* a dentist. If your hair is long you don’t *need* a barbour ($30 trimmer and/or spouse with scissors and 15 spare minutes seems to be the surprise hit of the pandemic... though once hair eventually meets crowds post-Covid all bets are off )  
 
Each time we advocate for opening of something new (especially indoor stuff and things in tighter spaces) its advocating for there to be a certain percentage of additional contacts, a percentage of which will lead to cases. 7.5% of those cases so far have had severe outcomes, per the Province. The less contacts the less cases and the less severe outcomes. Every time you blur the lines and add 1% more contacts here, another 1% contacts there you’re accepting more cases and forcing more strain on the medical system. If they’re adding to that percentage and taking on the reality of more contacts and more risk, it’s going to be in situations where there’s determined to be need and that the benefit outweighs the risk.  
 
We need to get through these next few weeks and ideal time for virus spread, which left not properly checked could lead to a true crisis in January that nobody wants to see. Maybe come Jan 8 if that doesn’t come to fruition they might start looking at assessing risk vs benefit on some of those “wants”... but realistically I’d expect a bumpy ride until we have broad enough vaccine implementation to put a big enough dent in risk. 

It’s a difficult topic to talk about because these are real people with families and friends going through tragedy from loss of loved ones, but I don’t think the increase in Covid deaths that seems to tie back to around that time frame has been talked about enough. 402 Covid deaths since November 1st in the province is at a rate that’s the equivalent to more than 3,500 deaths in a full year.  
 
From https://www.gov.mb.ca/health/annstats/as1819.pdf in 2017-18 the leading cause of death in Manitoba was circulatory disease at 23.4% of 11,058 deaths… which would work out to 2,587. Next is Cancer at 22.8% or 2,521. I.e. the rate Covid has been claiming lives in Manitoba since November 1 is likely easily out-pacing what would be the leading causes of death in other years (feel free to point out to the conspiracy theorist on your contact list that 29 died from the flu in all of last year in Manitoba or 115 TOTAL going all the way back to 2015).  
 
In applying those rates over a full year, one might suggest there could potentially end up being seasonal variations in the virus... but on the other side of the coin winter-ish weather is about a month behind schedule this year (today to me is the first real “freeze your face off” day of the season).  
 
It's been obvious for many months what the virus is capable of to anyone that's seen coverage from areas where it's gotten truly out of control.... but for local context maybe the province will consider providing all of the data for 2020 to help get through to those who haven't gotten the message yet. Especially if, as it appears, Covid has been taking lives in the trailing weeks at a rate more than any other cause in previous years I don’t even want to think about what January into February looks like if people go off script later this month and create situations where this virus loves to spread knowing that 7.5% of cases lead to severe outcomes.  

Code red has been extended for two weeks...  
from the link below:  
 
"The existing Critical (red) level restrictions have been extended by public health order with a minor modification to allow exemptions for professional hockey. "  
 
Please see all details at the link below to be as informed as possible:  
https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=50200

Hang in there folks. We’ll have to be smart with distancing, gatherings and crowds for quite a while yet but suspect it could make a bigger difference than some realize once they have the health system and the especially vulnerable vaccinated. We’re still highly unvaccinated and at risk for the same serious outcomes, made worse by behaviours contradicting what’s in the health orders.... but suspect that every week that goes by gets us closer to a tipping point where restrictions can be let up at at least some level!

I continue to keep an eye on public health orders and trust that they take into account many many negatives and trade-offs in deciding what restrictions are necessary right now to protect the health of everyone in this community and province as we work to the other side of this!