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So two cases of this new covid 19 ‘variant of concern’ first detected in South Africa announced in the UK today as well as cases in Israel , Hong Kong, Belgium amongst others.  
Also 61 passengers on 2 flights from South Africa to Amsterdam found to test positive for covid 19 (variant not determined yet).  
With thirty mutations of this new variant and many unknowns about transmission and immune response, will the Canadian government for once get ahead of the situation and shut down all unnecessary international travel , the simplest and safest way to reduce spread of infection at least until more is known , especially with the Christmas travel season about to descend upon us?  
 
Edited by Farmergeorge, 2021-11-27 09:06:50

A lot still to learn, but sounds like some concerning stuff about what this one might be capable of. It looks like the focus right now is on travel in and out of Southern Africa where it’s (believed to be?) most prevalent:  https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2021/11/26/1_5682764.html  

Air Canada stock was down as much as 10% yesterday, so at least some look to be concerned that this could eventually apply to wider travel in some way.  I know for us we've been looking at booking a bit of a holiday with kiddo getting vaccinated but we'll pump the breaks on that until at least more is known on this variant  

My guess is that except in the most authoritarian countries you won’t see an across the board travel ban right away unless/until there’s evidence that this one is either meaningfully more lethal or that vaccines are definitely a lot less effective. With South Africa only having a vaccine rate in the 20s the jury will be very much out on that last point. Some might say that it could be too late by the time that you have that info, but with the reality that life going forward could very well be a series of regular variants they’re going to have to work out a balance.

Somewhere in there is the debate on whether you really could even keep it out versus having your own country’s house in order as far as movement restrictions, vaccine programs, quarantines and all the things that limit contact and spread within to minimize strain on the medical system.  I'd bet good money that as soon as it's detected here you'll start seeing that sort of stuff get extra focus if this variant proves to both spread more easily and have issues with vaccines. 

I’m most interested in what the approach might be with the 10-15% antivax crowd if this or a future variant has properties of spreading more easily and having an increased mortality rate yet still responds to vaccine. If there isn’t the all out mandatory vaccine option, gotta think kid gloves would have to come off at least to some extent as far as where and how lockdowns might apply. Easiest way to not be part of that conversation is to follow public health recommendations on vaccines, but suspect I'm not saying anything that hasn't been heard before. 

IMO in this context one of the benefits of living where we live is we aren’t exactly a high tourism destination. I want to believe that the reduced natural movement of people in and out has been why we seen to see waves later than other parts of the country.  
 
Pfizer has said that they can turn around a new vaccine for an escape variant within 100 days (pending approval). Under that scenario there’s real potential for a sort of Manitoba advantage in being a little bit behind the curve. Of course all it takes is one variant case to sneak in and then we’re only as good as our measures in place and compliance to them, but even there I think that Brandon’s been well above average in how we’ve responded. Even though the availability of some data has been iffy, it seems like we haven’t had a ton of community spread over the past many months and that once outbreaks are identified they are addressed before things get too out of hand in the wider community. To me we can thank the outbreak last summer for giving so many folks pause to pull up their socks. Here’s hoping that if we need them even more in the weeks/months ahead these same habits serve us well.  
 
Of course at the other side of the fence we’re only an hour or two away from one of the worst regions in all of Canada for compliance. For that reason I look at us as always needing to be on our toes, especially considering that the current wave still taking place in the Province is still a serious situation.

One thing to keep in mind is that starting Tuesday, nobody 12 years 4 months or older boards a plane for domestic or international unless fully vaccinated save for what look like rare exceptions:  
https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid/travel-restrictions/domestic-travel

Very good interview this morning at the link below with Scott Gottlieb (on the Pfizer board and former FDA commissioner in the US)... one source I’ve followed over the past couple years as someone in touch with the facts around the virus and vaccines. Lots still to be learned on Omicron, but sounds like there’s at least some optimism that a fully boostered vaccine recipient would have a reasonable amount of protection. Highly recommend watching the whole interview for a little more perspective on where things are at right now:  
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-dr-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation-november-28-2021/  
 
Of course in all of this keeping in mind that there’s still an understanding being built around the variant, it’s different properties and the role around vaccines or potentially post-Delta immunity. I see it as best to keep an open mind at where the facts may or may not lead and ultimately look to our own Canadian and Manitoban officials for locally relevant direction as those facts become clearer. 

I think folks understand where you stand. I have a lot of trust in public health officials to make the best informed, fact-based determination of what's necessary in balancing all factors. Realistically I don’t think you’ll see anything that drastic yet unless/until there’s evidence of increased morbidity or meaningful escape of existing vaccines. Would expect info to become clearer by the day. In the mean time it’s up to us to do what’s in our control, following the usual fundamentals, making smart decisions and watching for further info and developments from federal and provincial authorities.

I’m getting a little out of my depth in too confidently trying to guess what’s next, but I like the optimism! The stock market seems agree with you so far going by futures for Monday morning after Friday’s omicron freak out… granted there are few things over this past year that the market hasn’t found reasons to be optimistic through it seems.  
 
One of the theories I’ve read is that as time goes on it’s possible we see a virus that adapts to increase in ability to spread and in that process reduce in morbidity. Sounds like it’s premature to say that’s what we’ll see with this particular variant, but I think there would be people that would say they could handle that future after whatever the road from here to there would look like.  
 
Will have to see what the experts who live and breathe this stuff day in and day out determine over these next few weeks and hope that it isn’t some combo of properties in omicron that has us taking a step back. 

Thanks for a level-headed post. In a pandemic that's sometimes been defined by what people want to believe it’s important to separate optimism from what the facts currently bare on Covid and to separate what’s plausible vs what’s likely.  
 
Link below goes back to February and a prev variant as the authors, a professor of microbial evolution and a senior lecturer on mathematical biology, discuss the relationship between virulence and transmissibility:  
https://theconversation.com/will-coronavirus-really-evolve-to-become-less-deadly-153817  
 
I learned a lot from the article, where they make it clear that “There is no general evolutionary law for predicting how these relationships will pan out, and certainly no justification for evoking the inevitability of decreased virulence,” with it being one possibility versus other disease examples they’ve given like tuberculosis and gonorrhoea that have been around a long time and are probably as virulent as ever. While that kind of decline is something that would be nice to see, hoping for that outcome in years/decades isn’t something one should hang their hat on since there’s nothing to say it’ll ever happen.  
 
It's important to try not to get too far ahead of ourselves during these periods where the scientific community is assessing a new development. At the end of the day, it’s important to trust the science behind Covid, the experts with the training and experience to apply it and the informed guidance from Public Health officials on what we need to do to keep this community and province safe. 

A little bit of Manitoba-specific info in today's Provincial Covid bulletin, pasting below...  
 
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From https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/?archive=&item=52783  
 
No cases of the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant have been detected in Manitoba at this time and the province can confirm that all positive travel-related specimens are being sequenced.  
The province continues to monitor the situation and work with federal officials in the fight against COVID-19 and its variants. Federal travel restrictions can be found here https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid.  

The province urges Manitobans to follow the public health orders, focus on the fundamentals and get vaccinated. Vaccine still provides one of the best defences against COVID-19. Find a vaccine location near you here https://protectmb.ca/making-your-appointment-is-easy/.  
 
* * * * * *

No data yet and sounds like it might still be a couple weeks before disease severity and vaccine responsiveness are known, but Moderna CEO not sounding terribly optimistic (link below) re the level of protection that existing vaccines will provide against Omicron. If that proves to be the case he’s setting the expectation of summer for when we might expect new vaccines to not only be developed but mass-produced to a billion doses. Speculation at this point without the data, but given who it’s coming from it’s not being taken lightly by markets which have taken a not so great turn after a bit of a bounce back day on Monday.  
 
Full story:  
https://www.ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f  

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/30/investing/global-markets-stocks-oil/index.html

From some of the comments back and forth over these last few days, big thing to prepare for is this discussion on shades of grey, just how much protection we’d have with existing vaccines, just how much we’d get with boosters or new vaccines and what level of uptake communities/nations would need to get ahead of the variant. No doubt that the misinformation machine will also fire up during this window of uncertainty, making it extra important to watch for what experts/scientists are saying and will have to say about the eventual data and follow the lead of Public Health which in Manitoba continues to stress the importance of protection with current vaccines.