Discussions

Eyes to the sky today.  
 
No watches/warnings in place as of yet, but strong potential for bad weather today. Storm chasers are in town!  
 
Watches & warnings can be found here: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb  
 

Targeting Brandon, Manitoba initially for #tornado threat late afternoon/evening today. Stay tuned @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/UAdTJHJRAK

&mdash: Reed Timmer (@reedtimmerTVN) August 3, 2016

#Thunderstorm threat continues. Supercell potential with risk of rotation in parts of southern #Manitoba. #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/BFoBqWaxie

&mdash: Emily Vukovic (@EmilyTWN) August 3, 2016

Edited by admin, 2016-08-04 09:01:12. Reason: title update

Not the bullseye you'd like your city to be at the middle of if you can help it.  Definitely worth keeping an eye on as the day goes on should it turn out to be that there are storms that could effect the area. 
 
Environment Canada's watches/warnings page is at the link below (I see there are already watches out in Eastern Sask):  
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb  
 
Radar is at:  
http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xfw  
 
And  
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MBX&region=a3&lat=49.91999817&lon=-99.94999695&label=Brandon%2c%20Manitoba

Just issued by Env Canada:  
 
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[i]10:41 AM CDT Wednesday 03 August 2016  
Tornado watch in effect for:  
 
City of Brandon  
Mun. of Glenboro-South Cypress incl. Treesbank  
Mun. of Norfolk Treherne  
Mun. of North Cypress-Langford incl. Neepawa and Carberry  
Mun. of North Norfolk incl. MacGregor Sydney and Austin  
Mun. of Oakland-Wawanesa incl. Carroll  
R.M. of Cornwallis west of Shilo incl. Chater  
R.M. of Elton incl. Forrest  
R.M. of Victoria incl. Holland and Cypress River  

Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms which may produce tornadoes.

A low pressure system developing in northern Montana will track into southern Saskatchewan this afternoon. Warm and humid air will stream northward ahead of this system setting the stage for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. A cold front associated with this system will move into eastern Saskatchewan this afternoon and trigger severe storms along the front as it encounters the warm and humid airmass. There is strong shear to the environment today with southeast winds at the surface and strong southwest winds aloft so rotation is likely with the storms that develop. The strongest shear is over southwest Manitoba so tornadoes are possible in that area especially when storms first develop.

This is a dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation.

Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

In the event of a tornado, or if a tornado warning is issued for your area, it is recommended you take the following actions: Go indoors to a room on the lowest floor, away from outside walls and windows, such as a basement, bathroom, stairwell or interior closet. Leave mobile homes, vehicles, tents, trailers and other temporary or free-standing shelter, and move to a strong building if you can. As a last resort, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Tornado watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #MBStorm.

 
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7#1541323811088288999201608030501ww1171cwwg  
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Good question re the emergency test. I'll check and see if plans are any different, or if there's anything different specifically that folks should listen for to distinguish between test and real emergency.

Via the Prairie and Arctic Storm predicition centre from their 2PM update (excuse the caps, that's how the info is put out):  
 
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[i]EASTWARDS, SEVERE CONVECTION IS VERY LIKELY TODAY GIVEN THE  
 
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  
THE PATTERN IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF  
OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR AHEAD OF THE  
LOW IS IMPRESSIVE - UP TO 65 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR - WITH VERY STRONG  
ADVECTIONS AT ALL LEVELS. LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AT 35  
KNOTS LOOKS TO QUICKLY BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE TWENTY  
DEGREE RANGE, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL JET RISES TO 100 KNOTS FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST. THE MONTANA LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO LIE  
NEAR ESTEVAN MID AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE TRIPLE POINT AND SURFACE  
WARM FRONT BOTH NORTH OF THE BORDER AS WELL. THE LOW WILL LIE IN THE  
MANITOBA INTERLAKE BY MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, A NARROW SWATH OF 1000  
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA NORTH TO THE TRANS-CANADA  
AND SHIFT QUICKLY INTO WESTMAN AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. MOST NWP TRIGGERS THIS INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE  
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND THE ESCARPMENT BY THE EARLY  
EVENING. GIVEN THE POTENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND GOOD FOCUS AROUND THE  
LOW, ALL MANNER OF SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, INCLUDING  
TORNADOES. WE HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST SK AND  
SOUTHWEST MB BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE SIG TOR PARAMETER AND THE  
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR SO STORMS THAT INITIATE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST SK  
SHOULD SEE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND WITH THE AVAILABLE SHEAR  
TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THE ONLY WRINKLE TO THIS IS THAT THE  
SAME STRONG FORCING MAY DEVELOP STEADIER BUT WEAKER CONVECTION  
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONSUMING INSTABILITY TOO  
EARLY, BUT THIS IS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE MINIMAL AMOUNT  
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ANYWHERE EAST OF REGINA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE  
ARE CARRYING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF THE TRANS-CANADA BEGINNING ROUGHLY AT THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN  
BORDER EAST INTO THE RRV. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA FROM  
DAUPHIN EASTWARD TO BERENS RIVER AND ONTARIO IS A SLIGHT RISK,  
http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html  
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Via emergency director Brian Kayes, just to clear up because I know this same question came up last year on a test day...  
If there was ever a situation where there was say a tornado known to be imminent they would be playing the siren on loop as well as making announcements over the PA system in between for as much as 30 minutes or more as the situation dictates.  
 
If we use today as an example, if there was the rare situation of an actual storm directly on Brandon's doorstep or occurring at the same time as a test was scheduled they would look at holding off on the test to avoid confusion.

Thanks for your updates hobbes. I think I speak for a lot of folks in being appreciative of how factual and quick you are in sharing info!

The text of the warning that includes Brandon:

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[i]Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:  
 
City of Brandon  
Mun. of Glenboro-South Cypress incl. Treesbank  
Mun. of Oakland-Wawanesa incl. Carroll  
R.M. of Cornwallis west of Shilo incl. Chater  
R.M. of Victoria incl. Holland and Cypress River  
At 4:55 p.m. CDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a cluster of dangerous thunderstorms capable of producing very strong wind gusts, up to golf ball size hail and heavy rain.  
 
At 4:50 pm CDT the thunderstorms extended from near Deleau southeastward to the international border and were moving northeastward at 60 km/h.  
 
Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Very large hail can damage property, break windows, dent vehicles and cause serious injury. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!  
 
Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.  
 
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #MBStorm.  
 
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7  
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Very big wind pickup in South end