Discussions

Been an interesting beginning to this year, in a way I don't think I have seen so many people with so many ideas, or placing of blame on so many others, as I do right now. Just wondering if anyone else out there feels we are at a beginning point in a whole new economic world, one that involves much smaller returns on all investments and an economy where we may have deflation in all areas including wages.  
 
Edited by don brown, 2016-01-20 08:15:50

don brown said "Been an interesting beginning to this year, in a way I don't think I have seen so many people with so many ideas, or placing of blame on so many others, as I do right now. Just wondering if anyone else out there feels we are at a beginning point in a whole new economic world, one that involves much smaller returns on all investments and an economy where we may have deflation in all areas including wages.     Edited by don brown, 2016-01-20 08:15:50"

I think the world is so heavily dependant on oil that it's too strongly tied to our markets. This means that we will always be dependant on the whims of the middle-easterners.  
 
I think the western world needs to start innovating our energy production, quickly, and in a big way or else I think you're right, we're going to be in trouble.

don brown said "Been an interesting beginning to this year, in a way I don't think I have seen so many people with so many ideas, or placing of blame on so many others, as I do right now. Just wondering if anyone else out there feels we are at a beginning point in a whole new economic world, one that involves much smaller returns on all investments and an economy where we may have deflation in all areas including wages.     Edited by don brown, 2016-01-20 08:15:50"

Most retired folks like my wife and I depend on investments for our income. The government pension plan won't allow for more than a bare bones lifestyle. We survived the last tailspin 2008-2009. We even found opportunity while the markets were in the trough. But will this happen again- no one knows. We can only do what we have done in the past and that is to ride it out and cross our fingers. If everything deflated in all areas who knows it may not be so bad. The price of a home is beyond ridiculous.

People do different things for entertainment, and for many years now my entertainment has been listening to guests on business channels, as well as some of the hosts, there are always reasons why markets act the way they do, but far to many times they seem to ignore the actual economy and deal with numbers and models. Right now the blame is being placed on oil, but only a year ago the slide in oil was going to be a good thing.  
Since the late 1970's the world has become much more focused on globalization of markets resulting in many trade deals being signed throughout the world. One problem I see with globalization is we will likely end up at a level which is much lower than we are used to. As mentioned above there are people who will be hurt, those on fixed incomes are really at risk, but if globally the economy cannot get it's feet under it, the pain will move into the service sector as well as many other parts of the economy.  
The reason I mention that it feels different this time is, this is the first time that when it comes to the production of nearly any commodity or product we have a situation of to many widgets with not enough consumer demand to change the picture. I imagine in short order we will hear of more QE programs.

This is something I have wondered about for a long time. I am skeptical of QE programs, I would think that eventually the global economy will hit the saturation point. Eventually we may all have to learn to get by on a lot less.

It seems that old patterns no longer apply - with globalization the market is so quickly and dramatically impacted these days by events in every corner of the world. EArthquake? Crop failure? Dictator overthrown? Oil spill? Within a few hours the markets are in a tail spin.

I watched the last hour of trading today and by the close the Dow was down 249 points which was a great recovery from the lows, what I did get a bit of chuckle from was how many people were so happy with a loss of 249. In a way I can understand why they were happy if you look at things from a technical point, and I, in a way believe in the merits of technical trading, but with nearly all markets one does have to ask has the picture changed when it comes to fundamentals. Today's trading did test old lows and make quite a bounce off those levels, what will be interesting to see is if this is a turning point or just a dead cat bounce.

Anyone have a suggestion where to go for this? Banks vs Investors! They all promise returns; they all are willing to take your money, who is good at helping one out after they have your investment. ie. follow up 6mths, years after? Or should I reword my question, who not to go to for investing?

I feel a lot of people's memories are too short, most investments that I saw in 2015 were flat, previous to that, they returned 14-16% in 2013-2014. While I agree that investing has started to become more global, most mutual funds (probably what most people are invested in) mandates are stuck locally. Therefore more global funds are being created. Investing in startups usually do not pan out well, anyone remember the Crocus fund? There are still opportunities out there, the markets will come back. Two steps forward, one step back.

I see this as a time to move some money from safe stocks and cash to buy some of the stocks that are down. Canadian mining and oil stocks are at record lows. The world will still need copper and oil in the future. These stocks will recover and be the flagship stocks they ounce were.

owyhee said "This is something I have wondered about for a long time. I am skeptical of QE programs, I would think that eventually the global economy will hit the saturation point. Eventually we may all have to learn to get by on a lot less. "

Think you can only squeeze a wet sponge so long until there is little if anything to squeeze anymore.  
 
Here is a article that is very scary for those that have not planned for retirement. The even scarier part is that increase in CPP and OEC deductions look to be just around the corner for the working people to support those that have relied on someone else to take care of them . Interesting research  
 
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/retirement-few-canadians-without-an-employer-pension-plan-have-enough-money-study-says/ar-BBpzYC7?li=AAgh0dA&ocid=SL5MDHP

don brown said "Been an interesting beginning to this year, in a way I don't think I have seen so many people with so many ideas, or placing of blame on so many others, as I do right now. Just wondering if anyone else out there feels we are at a beginning point in a whole new economic world, one that involves much smaller returns on all investments and an economy where we may have deflation in all areas including wages.     Edited by don brown, 2016-01-20 08:15:50"

is an excellent topic.  
 
All I will say is that when governments start flirting with negative interest rates and discussing a cashless society.....well, you know something nasty is on the horizon. They can keep it hidden for awhile, but sooner or later the system implodes. The low and middle class will suffer.  
 

Interest rates can't rise on savings unless they rise on loans, and if mortgages went any higher than 4% then house prices stop climbing (and stop selling). Manufacturing is gone, and it's not China's fault, my 2 year old son owns an iPad because of China...you own a 52 inch tv because there is no manufacturing in North America. What happens when the guys making $1/day want their iPads? What happens when the 52 inch TV is as hard to buy as a 20 inch tv was in 1980? What would an iPad cost at $30/hour plus benefits?  
 
You're slowly, incrementally finding out

don brown said "Been an interesting beginning to this year, in a way I don't think I have seen so many people with so many ideas, or placing of blame on so many others, as I do right now. Just wondering if anyone else out there feels we are at a beginning point in a whole new economic world, one that involves much smaller returns on all investments and an economy where we may have deflation in all areas including wages.     Edited by don brown, 2016-01-20 08:15:50"

people who know what's coming. They're planning to do away with cash. Sweden is already moving towards a cashless society.  
 
Larry Summers wants to stop printing 100 dollar bills. That will later include other bills They know what's going down and they want to bring in the cashless society to save the day.  
 
What will then happen is they can stop a run on banks and tax everything we do, especially carbon taxes.  
 
Want to know what that GPS in your car is for? Tax by the mile.  
This plan is on the way. Passive Canadians need to wake up.  
 
When politicians start talking about "negative interest rates, stealing your money in front of you, you know they are out of options and the rotting structure of pyramiding debt creation is near collapse.