Discussions

Believe me, being an optimist by nature I’m scraping the barrel for reasons to be optimistic here but I can’t agree with what you’re saying here yet.  
 
Whether it’s a case listed under active or one listed under recovered, the total number of positive cases associated with just the Brandon district went up by 548 over the last week. That’s an increase of 548 in this district or around 1 out of every 100 people that a lab-based test said were positive just in one week, which seemed unthinkable a month ago.  
 
This without accounting for other cases over and above that 548 that are either backlogged, did a rapid test or simply stayed home and waited for symptoms to subside.  Is it possible that some of that 548 came from backlog from a few days prior? Sure but I wouldn't bet on it outweighing what's new in the backlog when you consider that we really didn't start seeing any kind of meaningful spread kick up in data until the few days before Christmas break. 
 
As those and the pre-Christmas actives that we once thought were a high number start meeting the definition of recovered you’ll start seeing the recoveries number go up. What the Active case number looks like with new cases coming in as prev ones get moved to Recovered is anyones guess. Here’s hoping we start seeing some form of plateau in at least the data, though based on the scene at one popular local establishment that I saw last night and knowing that we had a major event in town reporting an attendance of 2500+ five days ago I’m not terribly optimistic that the end is in sight quite yet.  
 
If there’s reason for a kernel of optimism, it’s that we haven’t seen an onslaught of new hospitalizations in the data yet. But given that those kinds of outcomes have historically trailed detected cases by days-to-weeks we have a ways to go before a person gets too optimistic when you consider how razor thin our medical system margin for error is versus most other regions that are taking on Omicron’s unbelievable spread level right now too.  
 
Whether it’s this wave or previous, I watch the daily data and look for trends. One day with a reduced amount of cases might get a little attention but could be an anomaly. Two or three and it starts to get interesting. 4, 5 and 6 and *maybe* I start considering that things are heading in the right direction depending on test counts, any trend in positivity rates and the like…. But we’re a ways away from entertaining anything like that right now IMO which is why I'm surprised we haven't at least been more direct about scenarios for return to school in just over a week. 

If a person is looking for reasons to be optimistic weeks/months down the road, the interview at the link below with BC’s Dr Bonnie Henry might be worth a read. She is their Dr Roussin, and I've noticed that we seem to often follow their lead with measures. 

Different province that’s setup better than us right now in terms of what medical system looks like it can handle and their most recently reported test positivity rate is literally half of Manitoba's (~15% vs our 30.7%).... but as we do eventually get through this and to the other side there’s a real encouraging tone for where the pandemic could head from there. If it does turn out that way it would be awesome, but I’m personally concerned about what the road from here to there looks like for Manitoba:  

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6301202

Glad you asked that because it is a talking point that’s been floated off and on by the denier crowd over the last couple years and can always use rebutting. Link below ends that debate this time around before it even starts as far as whether there is a gigantic COVID spike in the community…. For PMH (overwhelming number of cases being in Brandon), just over two weeks ago for every 100 tests a little more than 6 on average came back positive. Most recently as of a couple days ago it was 26(!!) out of every 100 and provincially the number has still found room to grow from there since then to most recently over 30%. Indisputably a massive increase in amount of virus in circulation:  
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/d5971b9883dc4b6185c62402d104784d  
 
It makes sense that more are getting tested with that clear massive increase, hence the backlog but based on the backlog and the test positivity rate you would see a higher number of cases yet depending on how much of that backlog is specific to this region.  
 
The only thing is that the data, as much of an approximation as it is, will be representative of cases back when the tests were taken. Between backlog and results delay your guess is as good as mine on that. We can certainly hope that changes of the past week and temporary removal of the schools vector might start to have some kind of impact, but to assume anything other than highly active transmission right now is doing so mainly out of blind hope and is a ways from having any data even hint toward it.

There are a lot of people that are hopeful that could eventually be the case and there’s nothing wrong with hope. I’m no more in a position to comment medically than you but some of the early data seems to show less severity in cases in average.  
 
Thing is it’s not a cold, it’s it’s own creature and one that it’s clear there still isn’t enough of an understanding of to confidently draw conclusions on what we'll see here. If a less severe but still very problematic virus spreads way more easily, how many of those people that it reaches end up requiring hospitalization x days after cases and symptoms start showing up? New York City has seen hospitalizations rise in recent days to higher than last winter's peak and would be naive to think that isn't possibe here. Specific to Manitoba and the unique spot we’re in with still dealing with the effects of the last wave, how much of our medical system can handle whatever that impact is before we have a real problem? 

One thing is that if South Africa is any guide the wave might reach and pass the peak in a matter of weeks. Around a month after it’s case rise really started, South Africa are saying they’ve passed their peak and have started to relax restrictions amidst a fall in hospitalizations and cases. A worthwhile read at the link below, which includes caution against too confidently drawing straight lines from their data given their younger population and location in the Southern Hemisphere (summer):  
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/31/south-africa-omicron-coronavirus-peak/

Big Issue locally comes when people looking for a reason for this to be over take that hope, impatiently confuse it for fact and use it as a basis for actions that put us unnecessarily at risk. If medical pros including and especially those in this province have dialled up restrictions and tell us how important it is to reduce contacts it needs to be taken seriously. If you feel like someone’s trying to talk you down on that hope, it’s because for every you that’s keeping a level head and doing what we’re asked as this plays out they know and have seen others that have already made up their minds and are doing things that take chances we just dont need to be taking right now.  
 

Circling back to this post, which last week highlighted a key area that I think is still really lost in a lot of exchanges about what we’re seeing with the massive rise in Omicron cases.  
 
Many eyes on impact in other regions that have been dealing with Omicron wave sooner than our area. One of those is England, which is one of many places (London first and now increasingly areas outside of it) finding itself in a serious situation with a major contributor being absences in medical staff who themselves have contracted the virus.  Compounds with rising hospitalizations from COVID. 
 
Embedded tweet below is for clicking on and reading the stream of tweets from a higher up in their system today who factually puts into context what they’re dealing with with daily posts. We’ve already heard about shortages in Manitoba coming into this wave. While so many are focused on average severity of individual cases, as case counts continue to surge in Manitoba and locally there has to be serious concern over some variation of this same England story becoming more and more a part of what we see here…  

Another, NEW, update thread for Mon Jan 3, given fast moving NHS situation. Looks at NHS pressures incl staff absences, covid caseload &amp: what trusts are doing to meet pressure. Particular emphasis on latest hospitalisation data and why trusts may declare critical incidents. 1/25

&mdash: Chris Hopson (@ChrisCEOHopson) January 3, 2022

That'll be June 2020 population stats, but even assuming a little growth it'll still be not far from that 1 in 53.  
 
For comparison using population stats from that same period, Winnipeg and their 10,000+ active cases works out to "only* 1 in 78 people as active Covid.  
 
All just based on who's been tested. Provincial test positivity rate 37.8%.  Hadn't been above 15% before this wave. 

 
Major local department store parking lot packed a couple hours ago.  
 
Mentioned in the other thread, but Ontario announced major new restrictions today including closing restaurants to indoor dining, closing gyms, gatherings indoor to 5 and outdoor to 10, starting school in remote to at least January 17. Citing new models showing the risk for potentially "catastrophic" results if variant isn't brought under control in their province. Would like to know what our models are showing and what risks we're accepting with measures as they are right now:  
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-public-health-measures-jan-3-1.6302531  
 
Interestingly Saskatchewan on the other side...  Omicron wave starting a handful of days after ours. Only had 2844 confirmed Active in their whole province before the weekend. I see they had a major event with 4000+ people in Regina on New Year's day. Impact tbd. 

Thanks for pointing that out.  
Not sure by now much but going by some earlier posts in this thread someone might suggest that results are also effected by folks who have done a rapid test at home, got their positive, voluntarily isolated from there without getting the official test done.  Don't know how that stacks up versus people who have gotten a negative rapid and also then didn't get the official test. 
 
Either way, with how different things are this time around your point about straight line comparisons to prev waves does def need to be kept in mind...  especially when you also consider all of the backlogged tests.

Clearly a ton of Covid has been circulating in the community. Here's hoping that in time as backlog is caught up that we can see some relative numbers day-to-day, week-to-week that give best-possible idea of where this is at and where it's heading. 

For anyone that didn't catch yesterday, CBC story on case counts and Dr. Atwal's statement yesterday that real case counts are likely 8-10x higher than what's s showing in the numbers which for Manitoba would estimate out to 16-17,000 new cases Wednesday. Because those case count numbers are so far off, they are moving to putting first priority on hospitalization data in coverage moving forward... a lead I'll be following in my daily posts going forward too:  
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/covid19-update-pandemic-vaccines-manitoba-atwal-reimer-1.6304655  
 
Brandon-specific hospitalization numbers aren't broken out, though for Prairie Mountain Health the hospitalization number was reported at 16 Active hospitalizations and 27 total hospitalizations yesterday. Active hospitalizations were 5 on December 27.  
 
Provincially the dashboard yesterday showed 211 Active hospitalizations, 253 total hospitalizations.

FWIW, Ontario goes quite a bit deeper in terms of how they present hospitalization and ICU data... breaking down the data in terms of available beds, number of patients testing positive versus testing negative, breakdown by geographic area, graphing progression by day. Have to be careful with numbers and 100% straight line comparisons to our own province when ON is 10x the population and other variables such as differences in measures, but their data page may be useful to some to get a read on the Omicron wave:
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations

U18 AAA Wheat Kings having to cancel this weekend's games due to not having enough available players...  
 

Due to Brandon AAA U18 Wheat Kings not having enough players able to play due to Covid protocols, this weekend’s games against the Yellowhead Chiefs are postponed until further notice.

— Brandon AAA U18 Wheat Kings (@3Awheatkings) January 6, 2022